Brushworks
Brief us

Political strategy and data, at human resolution

Elections are decided by people, not demographics. We work at that scale.

Brushworks is a political intelligence firm. We model how individual voters behave, determine what would move each of them, and put persuasion into the field with a standard of proof — across the United States and in the harder theaters abroad.

  1. 1. The file
  2. 2. Signals resolve
  3. 3. Deciders surface
  4. 4. A program in field
Plate IFour thousand people as the voter file sees them: identical rows, nothing to tell one from another.
500+contests, from presidential to school board, over a decade
96%won, across every level and both parties
$5B+approved in more than a hundred bond and levy measures
270M+American adults and households, resolved and behaviorally scored
12countries of institutional and diaspora work
7offices on a single 24-hour desk
The premise

Most campaigns still buy the electorate the way television networks sold it in 1985: by age, sex, county and party file. Those labels are easy to purchase and easy to defend in a budget meeting. They are also the reason two neighbors with identical demographics receive identical mail and vote in opposite directions.

People do not decide as categories. They decide as individuals, under pressure, with whatever they happened to pay attention to that month. That attention leaves traces — what someone reads, buys, searches, cancels, renews, drives past on the way to work. Read carefully and modeled properly, those traces describe a person far better than the file does: what they are anxious about, what they take pride in, whom they trust, and what they have quietly stopped believing.

Brushworks was built to work at that resolution. We do the research, the modeling, the message architecture and the delivery ourselves, through our own media seats, and we measure every program against a held-out control — so that what we report at the end is what actually happened.

What we doThe method, in five movements

Terrain, audience, message, delivery, proof.

The order matters. Nothing is built before the race is mapped; nothing is written before the deciders are named; nothing is reported that was not measured against a control.

Capabilities in full

  1. I

    Terrain

    Where the race will actually be decided: the precincts, the margin, the money coming against you, and the clock.

  2. II

    Audience

    Deciders identified by what they do rather than by label, and grouped by what would move them.

  3. III

    Message

    A narrative track for each group, built from the anxieties and hopes it already holds and sequenced for the persuasion arc.

  4. IV

    Delivery

    Three registers: precision paid media, organic advocacy, and the ambient campaign. All of it disclosed, all of it through our own seats.

  5. V

    Proof

    Randomized holdouts, daily measurement, and a publish gate no model passes without beating the baseline.

The human layerExhibit 1

One person, seventeen thousand signals.

Our view of the American electorate is assembled from roughly sixty-two billion observed behaviors, resolved to more than 270 million adults and their households, organized into a ten-thousand-topic dictionary, and scored by models trained on real outcomes rather than proxies.

No single signal is decisive. The pattern is. A subscription cancelled, a commute lengthened, a local news habit, a sudden interest in prescription prices — each is noise on its own and evidence together. The graph is rebuilt monthly, digital activity refreshed daily, and none of it touches ethnicity, religion or ideology, which we do not model.

Inside the human layer

Exhibit 1The active signal registry, drawn to scale by domain — roughly 17,000 signals, each line a family of observed behaviors. Ochre marks signals that entered a scored model this month. Grouping illustrative.
From the behavioral lexiconExhibit 2, composites, not individuals

A campaign speaks to millions. It persuades one at a time.

Every other vendor in politics starts from the voter file, because that is what there is to buy: age band, sex, party, precinct, vote history. It is enough to send mail. It is not enough to know what to say. We describe deciders as phenotypes — composite people assembled from thousands of behavioral neighbors — so that a strategist and a copywriter can hold an entire segment in mind as a single person, and so that the person receives a line that was written for her.

Exhibit 2The same voter, two ways. Left, everything the voter file knows about the Night Nurse. Right, what the human layer knows — signals color-coded by domain, six scores, and the track she was assigned. Composite; the file's fields are typical, the signals illustrative.
  • Behavior, not labels.

    Cohorts are built from what people do — sixty-two billion observed events — never from ethnicity, religion or party as a proxy for what they will do.

    The category default: age band, sex, party, precinct

  • Named, and written for.

    Each cohort is a person with a name, a narrative track and a register mix. Copy is written to her; the studio produces the variants; every one carries a disclosure.

    The category default: one message, three demographic cuts

  • Measured against a control.

    Every track is judged against a randomized holdout. A line that moves the Steward and suppresses the Pharmacist is caught in week two, not guessed at in November.

    The category default: a post-election poll

The Steward

n., first-ring suburb

Homeowner, twenty years at the same employer, runs the parish fish fry. Believes the deal has been broken by people who never had to keep one.

Reads as
Order, obligation, the fair deal
Moves on
Cost-of-living arithmetic told with respect, not alarm

"The people who wrote the last budget never had to keep one."

The Splitter

n., late-deciding

Has voted for both parties in the last four cycles and resents being told what she is. Decides in the final ten days, mostly on character.

Reads as
Independence
Moves on
The single credible detail, not the platform

"Two votes, two dates, on the record. Judge them yourself."

The Night Nurse

n., shift worker

Mid-career, watches the news on a phone between rounds, has no patience for anyone who has not done a hard job under pressure.

Reads as
Competence
Moves on
Proof that someone has carried weight and kept their head

"She ran a trauma floor for eleven years. You'll hear she has never run anything."

The Renter

n., downtown, under 35

Three employers on the résumé, a lease that resets every twelve months, and a commute that has quietly become the central fact of life.

Reads as
Momentum
Moves on
A candidate who names the rent and the commute in the first sentence

"Your lease resets in March. Your rent didn't ask permission."

The Pharmacist

n., exurban professional

Meticulous about sources, allergic to slogans, and will read the footnote if there is one. Trusts the messenger who shows the working.

Reads as
Skepticism
Moves on
The claim with its evidence attached

"Here is the ratio she wrote, the hospital that adopted it, and the audit that followed."

The Contractor

n., rural-exurban, self-employed

Runs a crew of four, bids every job against someone cheaper, and keeps his own books at the kitchen table on Sunday nights.

Reads as
Self-reliance
Moves on
The rule that cost him a week, named specifically

"Section 4 cost you a week in March. Here is who wrote it and who voted to repeal it."

Commerce Media Civic Household Health and work Bars show the signal domains that define each composite

The recordExhibits 3 to 5

Ninety-six in a hundred.

Across more than five hundred contests — presidential, gubernatorial, Senate and House, ballot measures, and over a hundred bond and levy elections — the programs we have designed have won ninety-six percent of the time, for candidates and causes across the spectrum. Client names are held under agreement. The methods and the margins are not.

Open the casebook

Exhibit 3Five hundred contests, one dot each. Ochre, won; bone, lost. Drawn from the firm's record across a decade; positions of the losses are schematic.
OfficeMethodNote
PresidentialHyper-localization of a national narrativeA 2016 national campaign; the message rewritten county by county for the places that decided it.
GubernatorialBehavioral targeting across three distinct strategiesThree competitive states, three different theories of the race, one measurement standard.
U.S. SenateThe neglect algorithmPersuadable voters both parties had stopped contacting, found and moved.
U.S. HouseGrassroots amplificationSmall-dollar and volunteer growth engineered from behavioral affinity, not lists.
Ballot measuresSimplifying complexityA 2022 California measure: 65 percent support at launch, 17.7 percent at the ballot.
Bonds and leviesConcrete, not abstractMore than a hundred measures; more than five billion dollars approved by voters raising their own taxes.
Committees and NGOsThe permanent campaignTrigger-based activation between cycles, so the audience is warm when it matters.
Exhibit 4The record, by office. Each method is a case in the casebook.
Exhibit 5Support for a 2022 California ballot measure. The launch figure is the campaign's baseline polling; the result is the official statewide vote of November 8, 2022 (17.7 percent yes). The intervening trajectory is drawn to scale between them. Program in field from the second month.
CasebookThree of nine

What the method did when it met a real race.

  • Simplifying complexity

    A California measure whose text ran to dozens of pages, at 65 percent support, defeated with 17.7 percent of the vote — one true sentence per voter.

  • The neglect algorithm

    The persuadable, likely voters both parties had stopped calling, found by cross-referencing contact history with receptivity.

  • Ten million, five countries

    A diaspora treated as the constituency it is, across the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, the UAE and Australia.

All nine cases

AbroadExhibit 6

The harder theaters.

The same discipline travels. Our people have run engagement, security and narrative programs for governments and institutions in the Gulf, South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Africa, and diaspora programs in five countries at once. Seven offices sit on a single desk, so a mandate in Riyadh and a race in Michigan are watched by someone who is awake.

Where we have worked

Diaspora as an electorate. A ten-million-person community spread across five countries is a constituency, whether or not anyone treats it as one. We do.

Featured readFrom the Brushworks Review
Also in the ReviewAll twenty-four papers
    The rules we work byFive things we will not do

    Five things we will not do.

    Written into every engagement letter, and the first page a donor's counsel or a ministry's compliance office is shown.

    I

    Target on identity

    We model behavior only. Ethnicity, religion and ideology are never modeled, never bought, and never accepted as a filter.

    So the Steward can be any color and any faith.

    II

    Hide the messenger

    Paid advocacy is labeled. We do not operate undisclosed personas or accounts, on any platform, in any language, for any client.

    So the second voice is a real one.

    III

    Report without a control

    Every program carries a randomized holdout sealed on day five, and every model beats a demographic and a look-alike baseline before it ships.

    So the number in the report is the number that happened.

    IV

    Cross a wall

    Independent-expenditure work is separated from candidate work by structure — teams, systems and seats. Foreign work is registered before it begins.

    So a donor's counsel can certify the posture, not take our word for it.

    V

    Run what we could not describe

    If a program could not be explained on the record, in public, in the client's name and ours, we do not run it. Mandates that fail the test are declined in writing.

    So there is nothing to find.

    Abroad

    The same discipline, in the harder theaters.

    Twelve countries, eight domains, seven offices on one desk, and a specialty in the constituencies nobody else counts.

    TheatersExhibit 1
    Exhibit 1The firm by longitude, live. Clocks show local time at the seven offices; the pale band is where the sun is up right now. Filled marks are institutional mandates, rings are diaspora programs, small dots are diplomatic work.
    • The Gulf

      Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates

      Security and behavioral detection frameworks for the world's largest recurring human gathering — some two million pilgrims a year — balancing rigorous protocols with cultural sensitivity. Narrative and partnership work in the UAE, with messaging adapted for Arabic-speaking, South Asian and Southeast Asian audiences.

    • South Asia

      Pakistan; five diaspora markets

      A diaspora engagement program for a ten-million-person global community across the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, the UAE and Australia during a period of acute geopolitical volatility — stabilizing sentiment, building channels between the community and homeland institutions, and standing up crisis-communications frameworks for rapid response.

    • Japan and Southeast Asia

      Japan, Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore

      Market entry, regulatory navigation and trade facilitation across tariff structures that were designed to be opaque. Institutional relationships in Vietnam and across ASEAN; a manufacturing presence launched from nothing.

    • The Levant and Iran

      Israel and Palestine, Iran, UAE

      Cross-border humanitarian and commercial diplomacy across lines that formal channels could not cross, using business partnership as an instrument of regional stability.

    • West Africa

      Ghana; the coast from Senegal to Nigeria

      Behavioral scoring built with local institutions for financial inclusion — the same modeling discipline applied to a population the file has never described.

    • The diaspora markets

      United States and Canada; with the United Kingdom, UAE and Australia

      Five host countries, three languages, one program: the community segmented by behavior rather than origin, reached through leaders identified market by market, with a crisis desk that answers in hours.

    Institutional programsFor governments and institutions

    Six things a government can ask us to do.

    Ministries of interior and pilgrimage, diaspora and overseas-community offices, national communications directorates, sovereign institutions and the multilateral bodies that advise them have asked us for the programs below. Each is delivered with a local partner of record, registered where the law requires it, and measured — as at home — against a control rather than a survey. Every line in the evidence column is a mandate we have actually run; institutions are named by country and function under agreement.

    ProgramWhat we deliverFirst resultEvidence from the record
    Public engagementPopulation-scale programs that change what a public understands about a policy, a service or an institution — segmented by behavior, delivered in three registers, measured against a holdout.First read at week six; program at scale by week fourteenNarrative and partnership programs in the Gulf with messaging adapted for Arabic-speaking, South Asian and Southeast Asian publics.
    Security and behavioral detectionDetection frameworks for crowds and critical sites built on density, movement and access patterns rather than identity, layered from the approach roads to the site itself.Framework in one season; run by the institution thereafterThe world's largest recurring gathering — some two million pilgrims a year — protected without profiling.
    Diaspora engagementA nation's overseas community treated as an electorate: segmented, reached through its own leaders, connected to homeland institutions through channels that outlast a crisis.Pilot market in ninety days; five markets in a yearA ten-million-person diaspora across the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, the UAE and Australia through a period of acute volatility.
    Narrative and crisis deskStanding capacity to answer an incident within hours across markets and languages — pre-scored audiences, pre-built creative, validators identified in advance.Desk live in thirty days; first response within two hours thereafterCrisis-communications frameworks built for the diaspora program and run through subsequent incidents.
    Sentiment measurementContinuous, behavior-based measurement of how a public or a diaspora is moving, independent of the surveys that tell an institution what it hopes to hear.Baseline in thirty days; weekly thereafterBehavioral scoring built with local institutions in West Africa for a population the file had never described.
    Terrain and counterparty advisoryMarket, regulatory and counterparty analysis for institutions entering environments where the rules are unwritten; screened, registered, described in public.Brief in fourteen daysMarket entry and trade facilitation across Vietnam, ASEAN and Japan; cross-border diplomacy in the Levant.
    Exhibit 2Institutional programs. Timelines are typical for a signed mandate with a partner of record in place; evidence is drawn from the firm's mandates, anonymized under agreement.
    Diaspora as an electorate

    Ten million people, five countries, one constituency.

    A diaspora is a nation's most valuable and least managed asset: millions of people who carry the homeland's story into boardrooms, neighborhoods and voting booths in five other countries at once. It is also, increasingly, a decisive bloc in the host countries' own elections — and almost no one models it as such.

    We do. The same behavioral discipline that finds the Night Nurse in a Midwestern state finds the second-generation engineer in a suburb of Toronto, the remittance-sending nurse in Dubai, the small-business owner in Bradford, and tells us what each of them is listening for.

    Seven offices, one deskExhibit 3, live

    Somebody is always awake.

    Seven offices spanning fourteen hours of the clock run as a single desk. A program in the field is watched around the clock; a crisis in one market is answered from the office that is open; and a client in Riyadh, Ottawa or Tokyo has a Brushworks team working its own business day. The desk is also where the platform lives: a client's data is hosted in the region its mandate requires, replicated, and reachable from the office that is on watch.

    SpecificationThe deskWhy it is built this way
    CoverageTwenty-four hours, every day a program is in field. Handoff Tokyo to Dubai to Munich and London to Ottawa, New York and Washington, with a written watch log.A ruling, a headline or an attack lands on someone's business day, not on ours.
    LanguagesEnglish, Arabic, Urdu, French, German, Japanese and Vietnamese in-house or through standing partners of record; others by mandate.A crisis desk that answers in translation is late.
    Data residencyClient data hosted in the United States, the European Union or the Gulf as the mandate requires; never moved between regions without written instruction.Some mandates cannot leave the jurisdiction. The platform is built to stay.
    RedundancyEvery program environment replicated across two regions with daily point-in-time recovery; restoration tested each quarter and recorded.A program in week eight cannot lose a day.
    AccessNamed users, multi-factor authentication, logged access to every client file, separate seats and systems per practice.The wall is enforced by the system, not by memo.
    Platform reachActivation across social, search, connected television, programmatic and mail in every market where the platforms operate; local media through partners of record where they do not.Single-origin delivery has to work in Bradford and Sharjah, not only in Ohio.
    ResponseCrisis desk first response within two hours in any time zone; weekly field report every Monday, wherever the client sits.The cadence is the same at home and abroad, so the standard is.
    Exhibit 4The desk, specified. Residency, replication and access are written into the engagement letter for institutional mandates; independent security reporting available under agreement.
      How we work abroad

      Five commitments that travel with us.

      • Through local partners. Every program abroad is run with a local partner who owns the relationships and the language. We bring the method; they bring the ground.
      • Registered. Where a mandate touches the United States, it is registered under the laws that govern foreign representation before any work begins. We do not test the line.
      • Screened. Counterparties are screened against sanctions and end-use restrictions. We decline mandates where the client, the funds or the purpose cannot be described in public.
      • Disclosed. The same rule as at home: paid voices are labeled, and there are no undisclosed personas — in any language, on any platform.
      • Ours to answer for. Work abroad is signed by the firm, not by a subsidiary built to be deniable. If we would not put our name on it in Washington, we do not do it in Riyadh.

      Brief us.

      Tell us the race, the calendar and the margin. Within a week we will tell you whether we can move it and what it would take. Candidate work and independent-expenditure work are taken by separate teams; say which you are. Governments and institutions: tell us the mandate and the jurisdiction, and we will tell you what registration it requires before we say anything else.

      Send a brief

      brief@brwrks.com
      Candidate practice
      Independent-expenditure practice
      International practice
      Brushworks, Inc. — a Wyoming corporation
      Washington, New York, Ottawa, London, Munich, Dubai, Tokyo