Brushworks
Brief us

Political strategy and data, at human resolution

Elections are decided by people, not demographics. We work at that scale.

Brushworks is a political intelligence firm. We model how individual voters behave, determine what would move each of them, and put persuasion into the field with a standard of proof — across the United States and in the harder theaters abroad.

  1. 1. The file
  2. 2. Signals resolve
  3. 3. Deciders surface
  4. 4. A program in field
Plate IFour thousand people as the voter file sees them: identical rows, nothing to tell one from another.
500+contests, from presidential to school board, over a decade
96%won, across every level and both parties
$5B+approved in more than a hundred bond and levy measures
270M+American adults and households, resolved and behaviorally scored
12countries of institutional and diaspora work
7offices on a single 24-hour desk
The premise

Most campaigns still buy the electorate the way television networks sold it in 1985: by age, sex, county and party file. Those labels are easy to purchase and easy to defend in a budget meeting. They are also the reason two neighbors with identical demographics receive identical mail and vote in opposite directions.

People do not decide as categories. They decide as individuals, under pressure, with whatever they happened to pay attention to that month. That attention leaves traces — what someone reads, buys, searches, cancels, renews, drives past on the way to work. Read carefully and modeled properly, those traces describe a person far better than the file does: what they are anxious about, what they take pride in, whom they trust, and what they have quietly stopped believing.

Brushworks was built to work at that resolution. We do the research, the modeling, the message architecture and the delivery ourselves, through our own media seats, and we measure every program against a held-out control — so that what we report at the end is what actually happened.

What we doThe method, in five movements

Terrain, audience, message, delivery, proof.

The order matters. Nothing is built before the race is mapped; nothing is written before the deciders are named; nothing is reported that was not measured against a control.

Capabilities in full

  1. I

    Terrain

    Where the race will actually be decided: the precincts, the margin, the money coming against you, and the clock.

  2. II

    Audience

    Deciders identified by what they do rather than by label, and grouped by what would move them.

  3. III

    Message

    A narrative track for each group, built from the anxieties and hopes it already holds and sequenced for the persuasion arc.

  4. IV

    Delivery

    Three registers: precision paid media, organic advocacy, and the ambient campaign. All of it disclosed, all of it through our own seats.

  5. V

    Proof

    Randomized holdouts, daily measurement, and a publish gate no model passes without beating the baseline.

The human layerExhibit 1

One person, seventeen thousand signals.

Our view of the American electorate is assembled from roughly sixty-two billion observed behaviors, resolved to more than 270 million adults and their households, organized into a ten-thousand-topic dictionary, and scored by models trained on real outcomes rather than proxies.

No single signal is decisive. The pattern is. A subscription cancelled, a commute lengthened, a local news habit, a sudden interest in prescription prices — each is noise on its own and evidence together. The graph is rebuilt monthly, digital activity refreshed daily, and none of it touches ethnicity, religion or ideology, which we do not model.

Inside the human layer

Exhibit 1The active signal registry, drawn to scale by domain — roughly 17,000 signals, each line a family of observed behaviors. Ochre marks signals that entered a scored model this month. Grouping illustrative.
From the behavioral lexiconExhibit 2, composites, not individuals

A campaign speaks to millions. It persuades one at a time.

Every other vendor in politics starts from the voter file, because that is what there is to buy: age band, sex, party, precinct, vote history. It is enough to send mail. It is not enough to know what to say. We describe deciders as phenotypes — composite people assembled from thousands of behavioral neighbors — so that a strategist and a copywriter can hold an entire segment in mind as a single person, and so that the person receives a line that was written for her.

Exhibit 2The same voter, two ways. Left, everything the voter file knows about the Night Nurse. Right, what the human layer knows — signals color-coded by domain, six scores, and the track she was assigned. Composite; the file's fields are typical, the signals illustrative.
  • Behavior, not labels.

    Cohorts are built from what people do — sixty-two billion observed events — never from ethnicity, religion or party as a proxy for what they will do.

    The category default: age band, sex, party, precinct

  • Named, and written for.

    Each cohort is a person with a name, a narrative track and a register mix. Copy is written to her; the studio produces the variants; every one carries a disclosure.

    The category default: one message, three demographic cuts

  • Measured against a control.

    Every track is judged against a randomized holdout. A line that moves the Steward and suppresses the Pharmacist is caught in week two, not guessed at in November.

    The category default: a post-election poll

The Steward

n., first-ring suburb

Homeowner, twenty years at the same employer, runs the parish fish fry. Believes the deal has been broken by people who never had to keep one.

Reads as
Order, obligation, the fair deal
Moves on
Cost-of-living arithmetic told with respect, not alarm

"The people who wrote the last budget never had to keep one."

The Splitter

n., late-deciding

Has voted for both parties in the last four cycles and resents being told what she is. Decides in the final ten days, mostly on character.

Reads as
Independence
Moves on
The single credible detail, not the platform

"Two votes, two dates, on the record. Judge them yourself."

The Night Nurse

n., shift worker

Mid-career, watches the news on a phone between rounds, has no patience for anyone who has not done a hard job under pressure.

Reads as
Competence
Moves on
Proof that someone has carried weight and kept their head

"She ran a trauma floor for eleven years. You'll hear she has never run anything."

The Renter

n., downtown, under 35

Three employers on the résumé, a lease that resets every twelve months, and a commute that has quietly become the central fact of life.

Reads as
Momentum
Moves on
A candidate who names the rent and the commute in the first sentence

"Your lease resets in March. Your rent didn't ask permission."

The Pharmacist

n., exurban professional

Meticulous about sources, allergic to slogans, and will read the footnote if there is one. Trusts the messenger who shows the working.

Reads as
Skepticism
Moves on
The claim with its evidence attached

"Here is the ratio she wrote, the hospital that adopted it, and the audit that followed."

The Contractor

n., rural-exurban, self-employed

Runs a crew of four, bids every job against someone cheaper, and keeps his own books at the kitchen table on Sunday nights.

Reads as
Self-reliance
Moves on
The rule that cost him a week, named specifically

"Section 4 cost you a week in March. Here is who wrote it and who voted to repeal it."

Commerce Media Civic Household Health and work Bars show the signal domains that define each composite

The recordExhibits 3 to 5

Ninety-six in a hundred.

Across more than five hundred contests — presidential, gubernatorial, Senate and House, ballot measures, and over a hundred bond and levy elections — the programs we have designed have won ninety-six percent of the time, for candidates and causes across the spectrum. Client names are held under agreement. The methods and the margins are not.

Open the casebook

Exhibit 3Five hundred contests, one dot each. Ochre, won; bone, lost. Drawn from the firm's record across a decade; positions of the losses are schematic.
OfficeMethodNote
PresidentialHyper-localization of a national narrativeA 2016 national campaign; the message rewritten county by county for the places that decided it.
GubernatorialBehavioral targeting across three distinct strategiesThree competitive states, three different theories of the race, one measurement standard.
U.S. SenateThe neglect algorithmPersuadable voters both parties had stopped contacting, found and moved.
U.S. HouseGrassroots amplificationSmall-dollar and volunteer growth engineered from behavioral affinity, not lists.
Ballot measuresSimplifying complexityA 2022 California measure: 65 percent support at launch, 17.7 percent at the ballot.
Bonds and leviesConcrete, not abstractMore than a hundred measures; more than five billion dollars approved by voters raising their own taxes.
Committees and NGOsThe permanent campaignTrigger-based activation between cycles, so the audience is warm when it matters.
Exhibit 4The record, by office. Each method is a case in the casebook.
Exhibit 5Support for a 2022 California ballot measure. The launch figure is the campaign's baseline polling; the result is the official statewide vote of November 8, 2022 (17.7 percent yes). The intervening trajectory is drawn to scale between them. Program in field from the second month.
CasebookThree of nine

What the method did when it met a real race.

  • Simplifying complexity

    A California measure whose text ran to dozens of pages, at 65 percent support, defeated with 17.7 percent of the vote — one true sentence per voter.

  • The neglect algorithm

    The persuadable, likely voters both parties had stopped calling, found by cross-referencing contact history with receptivity.

  • Ten million, five countries

    A diaspora treated as the constituency it is, across the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, the UAE and Australia.

All nine cases

AbroadExhibit 6

The harder theaters.

The same discipline travels. Our people have run engagement, security and narrative programs for governments and institutions in the Gulf, South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Africa, and diaspora programs in five countries at once. Seven offices sit on a single desk, so a mandate in Riyadh and a race in Michigan are watched by someone who is awake.

Where we have worked

Diaspora as an electorate. A ten-million-person community spread across five countries is a constituency, whether or not anyone treats it as one. We do.

Featured readFrom the Brushworks Review
Also in the ReviewAll twenty-four papers
    The rules we work byFive things we will not do

    Five things we will not do.

    Written into every engagement letter, and the first page a donor's counsel or a ministry's compliance office is shown.

    I

    Target on identity

    We model behavior only. Ethnicity, religion and ideology are never modeled, never bought, and never accepted as a filter.

    So the Steward can be any color and any faith.

    II

    Hide the messenger

    Paid advocacy is labeled. We do not operate undisclosed personas or accounts, on any platform, in any language, for any client.

    So the second voice is a real one.

    III

    Report without a control

    Every program carries a randomized holdout sealed on day five, and every model beats a demographic and a look-alike baseline before it ships.

    So the number in the report is the number that happened.

    IV

    Cross a wall

    Independent-expenditure work is separated from candidate work by structure — teams, systems and seats. Foreign work is registered before it begins.

    So a donor's counsel can certify the posture, not take our word for it.

    V

    Run what we could not describe

    If a program could not be explained on the record, in public, in the client's name and ours, we do not run it. Mandates that fail the test are declined in writing.

    So there is nothing to find.

    Capabilities

    The method in five movements, the technology it runs on, and the way a program is implemented.

    Every one of them ends in a number we can defend — measured against a control we drew ourselves, on the fifth day.

    I

    Terrain

    Every race has a small number of places and a small number of weeks that decide it. Before anything is built we map both: the precinct-level margin arithmetic, the persuasion window relative to the absentee and early-vote calendar, the opponent's probable lines of attack from the record, and the money that will arrive against you and when.

    The output is a plan that says where the votes are, when they are reachable, and what it would cost to reach them — and, just as usefully, where they are not. A terrain brief runs to about twenty pages and is delivered inside the first seventy-two hours of an engagement.

    Exhibit 1The general-election runway. Persuasion spend that lands after the absentee drop reaches a shrinking audience; the plan is sequenced against this calendar before it is sequenced against anything else.
    Exhibit 2The county board. Six counties of an abstract state: last cycle's margin on the left, the modeled pool of persuadable, likely voters that neither side is reaching on the right. The plan concentrates where the second bar is long and the first is short. Illustrative.

    II

    Audience

    We identify deciders by what they do rather than by what a file says they are. Behavioral models score persuadability, turnout propensity and receptivity to particular arguments; individuals are then grouped by what would move them, not by demographic proximity.

    Segments are small, named and described as people, so the strategist and the creative team are working from the same picture. Equally important is the group we identify in order to leave alone — the voters for whom contact measurably backfires. Move the budget slider: the point of modeling is that most of the available lift sits in a small fraction of the population.

    Exhibit 3The uplift quadrant, with a budget. Each mark is a modeled individual. Drag the slider to contact people in order of expected net votes; the readout shows how much of the available uplift a given share of the population captures. Illustrative population of 170.
    The segment mapExhibit 4

    One cohort, the whole arc: built, understood, reachable, written for, proved.

    Every cohort in a map carries the same dossier. How it was assembled from the electorate and how sharply it was separated from its neighbors; what moves it, in four registers; where it is reachable, with matched counts per channel; what to say to it and what never to cross-run; and the instrumentation underneath. Choose a cohort. Every figure is illustrative of a statewide general-election program; the structure is exactly what a client receives.

    Exhibit 4Cohort dossiers from a segment map. Composites from the behavioral lexicon; figures illustrative. The assembly rail shows scale and discrimination in the same glance: from the state's registered electorate to the people reachable today, with not one attribute the campaign already had.

    III

    Message

    Most campaigns write a message and then look for people to send it to. We work the other way around. The segment map tells us what each cohort is already anxious about, proud of and waiting to hear; the narrative track is built from that, one line per step, sequenced so that the attack is answered before it lands and the ask comes last.

    Below, the same seven steps for three cohorts from one statewide program: three tracks, one candidate, and no line that any other cohort would have received. Each step carries its basis — the disposition or signal family that justifies the line — because a line without a basis is a slogan. The studio then produces the variants, forty to sixty across three registers for a statewide race, and every one carries its disclosure.

    Exhibit 5One narrative track, seven steps, three cohorts. Choose a cohort: the header carries what she is listening for, the attack she will hear, her validators and her register mix; each step carries its line, its basis, its register and its week. Lines are illustrative masters, not campaign copy; every real line carries a disclosure.

    The studio engine: one master, every register, every cohort.

    The studio does not write from a blank page. It takes in what the campaign already has — the stump speech, the approved ads, the policy pages, the endorsements, the record — and the brand guidelines that govern how the candidate sounds and looks. It decomposes that material into claims, each with its proof attached; matches each claim to the cohorts whose dispositions it speaks to; assembles a variant for each cohort in each register from one approved master; and runs every variant through four checks before a person signs it. What comes out is a tailored creative for a specific audience, built from the campaign's own material, in the campaign's own voice, carrying its disclosure. What the holdout says about it decides what runs next.

    Exhibit 6The studio engine. Left, what the campaign supplies: brand guidelines, existing content, one approved master brief. Center, what the engine does: decompose into claims with proof, match claims to cohort dispositions, assemble by register, check four ways. Right, the variants a cohort receives. Choose a cohort to see the match and the output change. Lines are illustrative masters, not campaign copy.

    IV

    Delivery

    Three registers, run as one program. Precision paid media, placed at the person rather than the zip code, across social, search, connected television, programmatic and mail. Organic advocacy — validators, relational networks, the letters page — that puts the message in a second voice. And the ambient campaign: out-of-home, a stunt calendar and earned media, so that the argument seems to come from the world rather than from the candidate.

    Every register is disclosed. None of it is delivered by undisclosed personas, and none of it is bought through anyone's accounts but our own, so that every dollar can be traced from invoice to impression to the holdout that judged it.

    Exhibit 7Single-origin delivery, as a loop. Every placement originates from a Brushworks account of record and flows out through six channels to the field; what the field does is measured against the holdout and fed back into the seats — reflighting, suppression, retraining — every day. The audit trail runs unbroken around the loop.

    V

    Proof

    We hold out a randomized control from every program and measure against it daily. A model is not deployed unless it beats a demographic baseline and a look-alike baseline on the client's own holdout; models that fail are logged and killed, not quietly retired.

    The hardest client is the one already on air. An incumbent's campaign in week four has a general consultant, a mail firm, a digital shop and a pollster, and no obvious reason to add anyone. The simulation below is that campaign. Its own program is running and working. In week four we layer in three things it cannot do for itself — the neglected persuadables its file has never contacted, the hold list that stops it paying to move likely voters the wrong way, and a sealed control that tells it what any of it did. Run it and watch the gap open.

    Exhibit 8An established campaign, joined in week four. Top, the registers flighting after the join (the ochre column is the absentee drop). Below, favorability among treated voters: the campaign's own program alone, the campaign with the Brushworks layer, and a randomized control that saw neither. The gap between the two upper lines is our incremental lift; the gap to the dashed line is the campaign's. Illustrative shape; real programs are reported with confidence intervals.
    TechnologyExhibits 9 and 10

    Ours, end to end.

    Everything in the method runs on a platform we built and operate ourselves — identity, graph, registry, models, studio, seats and measurement. Nothing is rented from a vendor who also sells it to the other side. Below is the funnel a client's program passes through, stage by stage; open any stage for what happens inside it, at what scale, and under what safeguards. Enough to evaluate it, not enough to copy it.

    Exhibit 9The funnel, in eight stages. Select a stage to open it. The catalog is the gate: nothing passes it without beating two baselines on the client's own holdout, and the measurement stage feeds back into it every day a program is in field.
    Anatomy of a scoreExhibit 10

    How a persuadability score is built, trained and allowed to ship.

    A score is not a rule. It is a model trained on what people like this actually did in prior programs — responded, signed up, turned out, moved — validated against two baselines on the client's own holdout, labeled with its confidence, and monitored for drift every day it is in use. The five panels below are the construction of one model in the catalog; the feature families and their weights are illustrative, the process is not.

    Exhibit 10Anatomy of a score. Inputs, feature engineering, training labels, validation at the gate, and what leaves the model. Feature weights illustrative.
    • The graph

      Sixty-two billion observed behaviors resolved to more than 270 million adults and their households, rebuilt in full every month; digital activity refreshed daily.

    • The registry and the dictionary

      Seventeen thousand active signals against a ten-thousand-topic dictionary in twenty-five domains, curated toward what has predicted political decisions and pruned when it stops.

    • The catalog and the gate

      Five model families trained on real outcomes. Nothing ships without beating a demographic and a look-alike baseline on the client's own holdout; failures are logged with the reason.

    • The studio

      Cohort-specific variants generated in minutes from one approved master and the candidate's own assets, each carrying its disclosure. Forty to sixty per statewide program.

    • The seats

      Every placement from Brushworks accounts of record across social, search, connected television, programmatic and mail. Single-origin, so a program can be audited from invoice to impression.

    • The desk

      Seven offices, fourteen hours of the clock, one continuous watch on every program in the field; the daily loop runs wherever it is morning.

    ImplementationExhibits 11 and 12

    Boundaries first, then a calendar.

    An engagement is implemented as a set of boundaries and a calendar. The boundaries say what data can touch what: a client's file enters under a written data-use agreement, is matched and scored inside Brushworks, is never combined with another client's, and leaves only as hashed audiences through our own seats. The calendar says when: fourteen days from signature to first flight, with the holdout sealed on day five.

    Exhibit 11Engagement architecture. Client data enters under agreement, is matched and scored inside the firm's boundary, and leaves only as hashed audiences through single-origin seats. The randomized holdout sits outside the delivery path and reports to the client, not through us.
    1. Day 1Terrain brief

      Margin arithmetic, calendar, attack lines, money against you.

    2. Day 3Segment map

      Deciders scored and grouped; the lexicon drafted.

    3. Day 5Holdout sealed

      Randomized control drawn and locked before any spend.

    4. Day 7Creative masters

      Narrative tracks and master briefs approved.

    5. Day 10Compliance review

      Disclosures, coordination protocols, registrations confirmed.

    6. Day 12Seats provisioned

      Single-origin accounts, audience matches, brand safety.

    7. Day 14On air

      First flight live; the daily loop begins; weekly field reports thereafter.

    Exhibit 12The ignition sequence. The same fourteen days for every program; only the terrain changes.
    What you receive

    Six documents, one standard.

    • Terrain brief

      Where the race is decided, when, and at what cost. Precinct arithmetic, calendar, opposition file.

      Day 1
    • Segment map

      Every decider segment scored, sized and described as a person, with the track assigned to each.

      Day 3
    • Message architecture

      The narrative tracks, the seven-step sequencing and the master creative briefs, with disclosures.

      Day 7
    • Flighting plan

      Three registers across the calendar, by week, by segment, by seat, with the absentee drop marked.

      Day 12
    • Weekly field report

      What ran, what it reached, what moved against the holdout, and what changes next week — four pages, every Monday.

      Weekly
    • Proof report

      The difference the program made, measured against the control, with confidence intervals and the model kill log.

      Close
    ProgramsWhat the method runs inside
    • Candidate campaigns

      Federal, statewide and local. We take a small number of races each cycle and staff each with a full team, from terrain through proof.

    • Independent expenditures and donor programs

      Donor-funded committees in which Brushworks controls budget and execution and a contributors' advisory board approves strategy, creative masters and media plans. Formed, firewalled and reported under federal coordination rules from day one, with sign-off gates and a ten-percent reallocation threshold written into the charter.

    • Ballot measures

      A question whose text runs to dozens of pages, reduced to the one sentence each voter needs — without misrepresenting the law. For and against.

    • Bonds and levies

      Asking taxpayers to raise their own taxes, precisely: the school, the roof, the bus route, the number. More than a hundred measures passed.

    • Governments and institutions abroad

      Engagement, security and narrative programs with local partners, registered where the law requires it, in theaters where the ordinary playbook does not survive contact.

    • Performance assurance

      For qualifying programs, Brushworks backs its fees with an underwritten performance assurance. It attaches only to media we place ourselves. Terms on request.

    Next chapterThe human layer

    Brief us.

    Tell us the race, the calendar and the margin. Within a week we will tell you whether we can move it and what it would take. Candidate work and independent-expenditure work are taken by separate teams; say which you are. Governments and institutions: tell us the mandate and the jurisdiction, and we will tell you what registration it requires before we say anything else.

    Send a brief

    brief@brwrks.com
    Candidate practice
    Independent-expenditure practice
    International practice
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