Brushworks
Brief us

Political strategy and data, at human resolution

Elections are decided by people, not demographics. We work at that scale.

Brushworks is a political intelligence firm. We model how individual voters behave, determine what would move each of them, and put persuasion into the field with a standard of proof — across the United States and in the harder theaters abroad.

  1. 1. The file
  2. 2. Signals resolve
  3. 3. Deciders surface
  4. 4. A program in field
Plate IFour thousand people as the voter file sees them: identical rows, nothing to tell one from another.
500+contests, from presidential to school board, over a decade
96%won, across every level and both parties
$5B+approved in more than a hundred bond and levy measures
270M+American adults and households, resolved and behaviorally scored
12countries of institutional and diaspora work
7offices on a single 24-hour desk
The premise

Most campaigns still buy the electorate the way television networks sold it in 1985: by age, sex, county and party file. Those labels are easy to purchase and easy to defend in a budget meeting. They are also the reason two neighbors with identical demographics receive identical mail and vote in opposite directions.

People do not decide as categories. They decide as individuals, under pressure, with whatever they happened to pay attention to that month. That attention leaves traces — what someone reads, buys, searches, cancels, renews, drives past on the way to work. Read carefully and modeled properly, those traces describe a person far better than the file does: what they are anxious about, what they take pride in, whom they trust, and what they have quietly stopped believing.

Brushworks was built to work at that resolution. We do the research, the modeling, the message architecture and the delivery ourselves, through our own media seats, and we measure every program against a held-out control — so that what we report at the end is what actually happened.

What we doThe method, in five movements

Terrain, audience, message, delivery, proof.

The order matters. Nothing is built before the race is mapped; nothing is written before the deciders are named; nothing is reported that was not measured against a control.

Capabilities in full

  1. I

    Terrain

    Where the race will actually be decided: the precincts, the margin, the money coming against you, and the clock.

  2. II

    Audience

    Deciders identified by what they do rather than by label, and grouped by what would move them.

  3. III

    Message

    A narrative track for each group, built from the anxieties and hopes it already holds and sequenced for the persuasion arc.

  4. IV

    Delivery

    Three registers: precision paid media, organic advocacy, and the ambient campaign. All of it disclosed, all of it through our own seats.

  5. V

    Proof

    Randomized holdouts, daily measurement, and a publish gate no model passes without beating the baseline.

The human layerExhibit 1

One person, seventeen thousand signals.

Our view of the American electorate is assembled from roughly sixty-two billion observed behaviors, resolved to more than 270 million adults and their households, organized into a ten-thousand-topic dictionary, and scored by models trained on real outcomes rather than proxies.

No single signal is decisive. The pattern is. A subscription cancelled, a commute lengthened, a local news habit, a sudden interest in prescription prices — each is noise on its own and evidence together. The graph is rebuilt monthly, digital activity refreshed daily, and none of it touches ethnicity, religion or ideology, which we do not model.

Inside the human layer

Exhibit 1The active signal registry, drawn to scale by domain — roughly 17,000 signals, each line a family of observed behaviors. Ochre marks signals that entered a scored model this month. Grouping illustrative.
From the behavioral lexiconExhibit 2, composites, not individuals

A campaign speaks to millions. It persuades one at a time.

Every other vendor in politics starts from the voter file, because that is what there is to buy: age band, sex, party, precinct, vote history. It is enough to send mail. It is not enough to know what to say. We describe deciders as phenotypes — composite people assembled from thousands of behavioral neighbors — so that a strategist and a copywriter can hold an entire segment in mind as a single person, and so that the person receives a line that was written for her.

Exhibit 2The same voter, two ways. Left, everything the voter file knows about the Night Nurse. Right, what the human layer knows — signals color-coded by domain, six scores, and the track she was assigned. Composite; the file's fields are typical, the signals illustrative.
  • Behavior, not labels.

    Cohorts are built from what people do — sixty-two billion observed events — never from ethnicity, religion or party as a proxy for what they will do.

    The category default: age band, sex, party, precinct

  • Named, and written for.

    Each cohort is a person with a name, a narrative track and a register mix. Copy is written to her; the studio produces the variants; every one carries a disclosure.

    The category default: one message, three demographic cuts

  • Measured against a control.

    Every track is judged against a randomized holdout. A line that moves the Steward and suppresses the Pharmacist is caught in week two, not guessed at in November.

    The category default: a post-election poll

The Steward

n., first-ring suburb

Homeowner, twenty years at the same employer, runs the parish fish fry. Believes the deal has been broken by people who never had to keep one.

Reads as
Order, obligation, the fair deal
Moves on
Cost-of-living arithmetic told with respect, not alarm

"The people who wrote the last budget never had to keep one."

The Splitter

n., late-deciding

Has voted for both parties in the last four cycles and resents being told what she is. Decides in the final ten days, mostly on character.

Reads as
Independence
Moves on
The single credible detail, not the platform

"Two votes, two dates, on the record. Judge them yourself."

The Night Nurse

n., shift worker

Mid-career, watches the news on a phone between rounds, has no patience for anyone who has not done a hard job under pressure.

Reads as
Competence
Moves on
Proof that someone has carried weight and kept their head

"She ran a trauma floor for eleven years. You'll hear she has never run anything."

The Renter

n., downtown, under 35

Three employers on the résumé, a lease that resets every twelve months, and a commute that has quietly become the central fact of life.

Reads as
Momentum
Moves on
A candidate who names the rent and the commute in the first sentence

"Your lease resets in March. Your rent didn't ask permission."

The Pharmacist

n., exurban professional

Meticulous about sources, allergic to slogans, and will read the footnote if there is one. Trusts the messenger who shows the working.

Reads as
Skepticism
Moves on
The claim with its evidence attached

"Here is the ratio she wrote, the hospital that adopted it, and the audit that followed."

The Contractor

n., rural-exurban, self-employed

Runs a crew of four, bids every job against someone cheaper, and keeps his own books at the kitchen table on Sunday nights.

Reads as
Self-reliance
Moves on
The rule that cost him a week, named specifically

"Section 4 cost you a week in March. Here is who wrote it and who voted to repeal it."

Commerce Media Civic Household Health and work Bars show the signal domains that define each composite

The recordExhibits 3 to 5

Ninety-six in a hundred.

Across more than five hundred contests — presidential, gubernatorial, Senate and House, ballot measures, and over a hundred bond and levy elections — the programs we have designed have won ninety-six percent of the time, for candidates and causes across the spectrum. Client names are held under agreement. The methods and the margins are not.

Open the casebook

Exhibit 3Five hundred contests, one dot each. Ochre, won; bone, lost. Drawn from the firm's record across a decade; positions of the losses are schematic.
OfficeMethodNote
PresidentialHyper-localization of a national narrativeA 2016 national campaign; the message rewritten county by county for the places that decided it.
GubernatorialBehavioral targeting across three distinct strategiesThree competitive states, three different theories of the race, one measurement standard.
U.S. SenateThe neglect algorithmPersuadable voters both parties had stopped contacting, found and moved.
U.S. HouseGrassroots amplificationSmall-dollar and volunteer growth engineered from behavioral affinity, not lists.
Ballot measuresSimplifying complexityA 2022 California measure: 65 percent support at launch, 17.7 percent at the ballot.
Bonds and leviesConcrete, not abstractMore than a hundred measures; more than five billion dollars approved by voters raising their own taxes.
Committees and NGOsThe permanent campaignTrigger-based activation between cycles, so the audience is warm when it matters.
Exhibit 4The record, by office. Each method is a case in the casebook.
Exhibit 5Support for a 2022 California ballot measure. The launch figure is the campaign's baseline polling; the result is the official statewide vote of November 8, 2022 (17.7 percent yes). The intervening trajectory is drawn to scale between them. Program in field from the second month.
CasebookThree of nine

What the method did when it met a real race.

  • Simplifying complexity

    A California measure whose text ran to dozens of pages, at 65 percent support, defeated with 17.7 percent of the vote — one true sentence per voter.

  • The neglect algorithm

    The persuadable, likely voters both parties had stopped calling, found by cross-referencing contact history with receptivity.

  • Ten million, five countries

    A diaspora treated as the constituency it is, across the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, the UAE and Australia.

All nine cases

AbroadExhibit 6

The harder theaters.

The same discipline travels. Our people have run engagement, security and narrative programs for governments and institutions in the Gulf, South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Africa, and diaspora programs in five countries at once. Seven offices sit on a single desk, so a mandate in Riyadh and a race in Michigan are watched by someone who is awake.

Where we have worked

Diaspora as an electorate. A ten-million-person community spread across five countries is a constituency, whether or not anyone treats it as one. We do.

Featured readFrom the Brushworks Review
Also in the ReviewAll twenty-four papers
    The rules we work byFive things we will not do

    Five things we will not do.

    Written into every engagement letter, and the first page a donor's counsel or a ministry's compliance office is shown.

    I

    Target on identity

    We model behavior only. Ethnicity, religion and ideology are never modeled, never bought, and never accepted as a filter.

    So the Steward can be any color and any faith.

    II

    Hide the messenger

    Paid advocacy is labeled. We do not operate undisclosed personas or accounts, on any platform, in any language, for any client.

    So the second voice is a real one.

    III

    Report without a control

    Every program carries a randomized holdout sealed on day five, and every model beats a demographic and a look-alike baseline before it ships.

    So the number in the report is the number that happened.

    IV

    Cross a wall

    Independent-expenditure work is separated from candidate work by structure — teams, systems and seats. Foreign work is registered before it begins.

    So a donor's counsel can certify the posture, not take our word for it.

    V

    Run what we could not describe

    If a program could not be explained on the record, in public, in the client's name and ours, we do not run it. Mandates that fail the test are declined in writing.

    So there is nothing to find.

    Casebook

    Five hundred contests, one standard of proof.

    Nine cases, by method. Names are held under agreement; the terrain, the move and the margin are in the open.

    The recordExhibits 1 and 2

    Ninety-six in a hundred.

    Every contest we have designed a program for, one dot each. Results are verified against public returns and, where a holdout existed, against the control. Written references are available to qualified prospects under agreement.

    Exhibit 1Five hundred contests. Ochre, won; bone, lost. Positions of the losses are schematic.
    OfficeMethodNote
    PresidentialHyper-localization of a national narrativeA 2016 national campaign. The same argument, rewritten for the counties that decided the electoral map, in the vocabulary each county already used.
    GubernatorialBehavioral targeting across three distinct strategiesThree competitive states with three different theories of the race — a challenger, an incumbent, a coalition rebuild — run on one measurement standard.
    U.S. SenateThe neglect algorithmPersuadable, likely voters that both parties had stopped contacting, identified by cross-referencing contact history with receptivity scores.
    U.S. HouseGrassroots amplificationSmall-dollar and volunteer growth engineered from behavioral affinity rather than purchased lists; national-profile members on both sides of the aisle.
    Ballot measuresSimplifying complexityA 2022 California measure with 65 percent support at launch and nine figures of spending behind it, defeated with 17.7 percent of the vote.
    Bonds and leviesConcrete, not abstractMore than a hundred school bond and levy measures; more than five billion dollars approved by voters raising their own taxes.
    Committees and NGOsThe permanent campaignTrigger-based activation between cycles: the audience is kept warm by responding to events, not by a calendar.
    AbroadInstitutional and diaspora programsTwelve countries; security, engagement and narrative mandates for governments and institutions, and a five-country diaspora program.
    Exhibit 2The record, by office.
    Case 1Ballot measure, California, 2022

    Simplifying complexity.

    The terrain

    An online sports-betting proposition with sixty-five percent support in the campaign's baseline polling and one of the largest advertising budgets ever assembled behind a measure. The text ran to dozens of pages. Almost no one would read it.

    The move

    The measure was distilled into single-sentence frames, each true, each chosen for the person reading it by behavioral profile: a family-finance frame for one household, an economic-impact frame for another, a local-revenue frame for a third. Forty-one variants across three registers.

    The result

    Defeated with 17.7 percent of the vote on November 8, 2022 — the official statewide result, a swing of more than forty-five points from the baseline — with a sixty-one percent increase in favorable sentiment toward the opposition's position on social platforms over the same period.

    Exhibit 3Support from launch to result. The launch figure is the campaign's baseline polling; the result is the official statewide vote (17.7 percent yes). The trajectory is drawn to scale between them.
    Case 2U.S. Senate and gubernatorial, competitive states

    The neglect algorithm.

    The terrain

    Both parties keep contact histories, and both, over time, stop calling the same people: the voters who did not answer, did not give, did not sign. Some are gone. Many are persuadable people whom the machinery has quietly written off.

    The move

    Contact history was cross-referenced against behavioral receptivity and turnout propensity, surfacing tens of thousands of voters who scored high on both and had not been contacted by anyone in years. They were cheaper to reach, more open when reached, and invisible to polling that treated them as noise.

    The result

    In the competitive statewide races where the method has been deployed, margins in written-off counties exceeded every model that ignored them. Use the layers below to see how the population is found.

    Exhibit 4An abstract territory of 448 precinct-sized cells, each about two thousand voters. Toggle the layers: who has been contacted in three cycles, how receptive each cell scores, and where the neglected persuadables are. Illustrative data; the method is real.
    Case 3Bonds and levies, more than a hundred measures nationwide

    Concrete, not abstract.

    The terrain

    Convincing taxpayers to raise their own taxes, in districts where the previous attempt had often failed, against organized opposition and general fatigue with the word "education."

    The move

    The conversation was moved from the abstraction to the object: the roof that leaks, the science lab from 1971, the bus route that was cut — improvements a voter can see from the road. Spend concentrated on the households most likely to be moved by them; hostile segments left untouched.

    The result

    More than five billion dollars in community investment approved across more than a hundred measures, with margins up to fifty-seven points.

    Exhibit 5Five selected measures. District names are available under agreement.
    Case 4Presidential, 2016

    Hyper-localization.

    The terrain

    A national campaign with one argument and an electoral map decided by a few dozen counties that did not experience that argument the same way. A county that lost a plant and a county that gained one heard the same sentence and understood different things.

    The move

    The national narrative was rewritten at the county level, in the vocabulary each place already used — its employers, its landmarks, its grievances — and delivered as if it had been written there.

    The result

    Won. The states that decided the map were carried on margins that the national polling had not seen coming, in counties the national creative had not been speaking to.

    Exhibit 6The same argument, four vocabularies. Illustrative lines; the method is the point.
    Case 5Gubernatorial, three competitive states

    Behavioral targeting, three ways.

    The terrain

    Three governors' races in the same cycle with three different problems: a challenger nobody knew, an incumbent nobody could name anything about, and a coalition that had come apart.

    The move

    Three different theories of the race, three different segment maps, three different register mixes — all measured to one standard, against holdouts drawn on day five.

    The result

    All three won.

    The challengerThe incumbentThe coalition rebuild
    Theory of the raceIntroduce a person before the opponent defines himAttach a record to a name that sixty percent of voters could not attach anything toRe-earn the segments that had drifted, one reason at a time
    Audience emphasisLate deciders and low-information likely votersSoft supporters with high turnout propensityFormer supporters scored as recoverable, not lost
    Register mixPaid-heavy early, then validatorsEarned and ambient first, paid proof secondRelational and organic, with precision paid in the last three weeks
    ResultWonWonWon
    Exhibit 7Three strategies side by side. The measurement standard was the only thing they shared.
    Case 6U.S. House, national-profile members, both parties

    Grassroots amplification.

    The terrain

    House members with national followings and local districts, dependent on small-dollar donors and volunteers who were being rented from purchased lists, harvested once, and lost.

    The move

    Donors and volunteers were found by behavioral affinity rather than list purchase, and grown along a curve — recognition, concern, permission, ask — rather than hit with the ask on first contact.

    The result

    Small-dollar and volunteer bases that compounded across a cycle instead of decaying, for members on both sides of the aisle.

    Exhibit 8Active small-dollar donors over twelve weeks: affinity-built base against a purchased list of the same starting size. Illustrative shape.
    Case 7Committees and NGOs

    The permanent campaign.

    The terrain

    Organizations that exist between elections, whose audiences go cold between them, and whose fundraising and activation spike only when a headline does the work for them.

    The move

    Activation was tied to triggers rather than to the calendar — a ruling, a vote, a headline — with pre-built creative and pre-scored lists, so that response is measured in hours, not weeks.

    The result

    Audiences that stay warm, and activation curves that rise with each trigger instead of resetting to zero.

    Exhibit 9Engagement index across a year with four triggers marked. The dashed line is the same audience under a calendar-driven program. Illustrative shape.
    Case 8Diaspora engagement, five countries

    Ten million, five countries.

    The terrain

    A ten-million-person global community across the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, the UAE and Australia, during a period of acute geopolitical volatility that was fracturing sentiment toward the homeland in every one of them at once.

    The move

    The diaspora was treated as an electorate: segmented by behavior rather than by origin, reached through community leaders identified market by market, with sustainable channels to homeland institutions and a crisis-communications framework for rapid response.

    The result

    Sentiment stabilized across five markets, durable channels in place, and a playbook the institution still runs.

    MarketWhat the community was listening forRegister emphasisLocal partner
    United StatesStanding at work, standing at school; the second generation's storyOrganic validators, relationalCommunity and professional associations
    United KingdomBelonging in a hard news cycleEarned, then precision paidRegional community leadership
    CanadaBilateral strain felt at the family levelRelational, crisis deskFaith and civic institutions
    UAERemittance, return, reputationPrecision paid, ambientBusiness councils
    AustraliaDistance, and what it does to loyaltyOrganic, relationalStudent and alumni networks
    Exhibit 10Five markets, one program. Partner types are given by category.
    Case 9Security and behavioral detection, the Gulf

    Two million pilgrims.

    The terrain

    The world's largest recurring human gathering: some two million people a year moving through a small number of sites on a fixed calendar, with security that had to be rigorous and could not be seen to profile.

    The move

    Automated detection frameworks built on behavior — density, movement, access patterns — rather than on identity, layered from the approach roads to the sites themselves, with messaging adapted for Arabic-speaking, South Asian and Southeast Asian pilgrims.

    The result

    A security posture that protected the crowd without profiling the person, and a framework the ministry runs each year.

    Exhibit 11Three zones, three behavioral layers. Schematic; operational detail is held under agreement.
    Next chapterAbroad

    Brief us.

    Tell us the race, the calendar and the margin. Within a week we will tell you whether we can move it and what it would take. Candidate work and independent-expenditure work are taken by separate teams; say which you are. Governments and institutions: tell us the mandate and the jurisdiction, and we will tell you what registration it requires before we say anything else.

    Send a brief

    brief@brwrks.com
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