Brushworks
Brief us

Political strategy and data, at human resolution

Elections are decided by people, not demographics. We work at that scale.

Brushworks is a political intelligence firm. We model how individual voters behave, determine what would move each of them, and put persuasion into the field with a standard of proof — across the United States and in the harder theaters abroad.

  1. 1. The file
  2. 2. Signals resolve
  3. 3. Deciders surface
  4. 4. A program in field
Plate IFour thousand people as the voter file sees them: identical rows, nothing to tell one from another.
500+contests, from presidential to school board, over a decade
96%won, across every level and both parties
$5B+approved in more than a hundred bond and levy measures
270M+American adults and households, resolved and behaviorally scored
12countries of institutional and diaspora work
7offices on a single 24-hour desk
The premise

Most campaigns still buy the electorate the way television networks sold it in 1985: by age, sex, county and party file. Those labels are easy to purchase and easy to defend in a budget meeting. They are also the reason two neighbors with identical demographics receive identical mail and vote in opposite directions.

People do not decide as categories. They decide as individuals, under pressure, with whatever they happened to pay attention to that month. That attention leaves traces — what someone reads, buys, searches, cancels, renews, drives past on the way to work. Read carefully and modeled properly, those traces describe a person far better than the file does: what they are anxious about, what they take pride in, whom they trust, and what they have quietly stopped believing.

Brushworks was built to work at that resolution. We do the research, the modeling, the message architecture and the delivery ourselves, through our own media seats, and we measure every program against a held-out control — so that what we report at the end is what actually happened.

What we doThe method, in five movements

Terrain, audience, message, delivery, proof.

The order matters. Nothing is built before the race is mapped; nothing is written before the deciders are named; nothing is reported that was not measured against a control.

Capabilities in full

  1. I

    Terrain

    Where the race will actually be decided: the precincts, the margin, the money coming against you, and the clock.

  2. II

    Audience

    Deciders identified by what they do rather than by label, and grouped by what would move them.

  3. III

    Message

    A narrative track for each group, built from the anxieties and hopes it already holds and sequenced for the persuasion arc.

  4. IV

    Delivery

    Three registers: precision paid media, organic advocacy, and the ambient campaign. All of it disclosed, all of it through our own seats.

  5. V

    Proof

    Randomized holdouts, daily measurement, and a publish gate no model passes without beating the baseline.

The human layerExhibit 1

One person, seventeen thousand signals.

Our view of the American electorate is assembled from roughly sixty-two billion observed behaviors, resolved to more than 270 million adults and their households, organized into a ten-thousand-topic dictionary, and scored by models trained on real outcomes rather than proxies.

No single signal is decisive. The pattern is. A subscription cancelled, a commute lengthened, a local news habit, a sudden interest in prescription prices — each is noise on its own and evidence together. The graph is rebuilt monthly, digital activity refreshed daily, and none of it touches ethnicity, religion or ideology, which we do not model.

Inside the human layer

Exhibit 1The active signal registry, drawn to scale by domain — roughly 17,000 signals, each line a family of observed behaviors. Ochre marks signals that entered a scored model this month. Grouping illustrative.
From the behavioral lexiconExhibit 2, composites, not individuals

A campaign speaks to millions. It persuades one at a time.

Every other vendor in politics starts from the voter file, because that is what there is to buy: age band, sex, party, precinct, vote history. It is enough to send mail. It is not enough to know what to say. We describe deciders as phenotypes — composite people assembled from thousands of behavioral neighbors — so that a strategist and a copywriter can hold an entire segment in mind as a single person, and so that the person receives a line that was written for her.

Exhibit 2The same voter, two ways. Left, everything the voter file knows about the Night Nurse. Right, what the human layer knows — signals color-coded by domain, six scores, and the track she was assigned. Composite; the file's fields are typical, the signals illustrative.
  • Behavior, not labels.

    Cohorts are built from what people do — sixty-two billion observed events — never from ethnicity, religion or party as a proxy for what they will do.

    The category default: age band, sex, party, precinct

  • Named, and written for.

    Each cohort is a person with a name, a narrative track and a register mix. Copy is written to her; the studio produces the variants; every one carries a disclosure.

    The category default: one message, three demographic cuts

  • Measured against a control.

    Every track is judged against a randomized holdout. A line that moves the Steward and suppresses the Pharmacist is caught in week two, not guessed at in November.

    The category default: a post-election poll

The Steward

n., first-ring suburb

Homeowner, twenty years at the same employer, runs the parish fish fry. Believes the deal has been broken by people who never had to keep one.

Reads as
Order, obligation, the fair deal
Moves on
Cost-of-living arithmetic told with respect, not alarm

"The people who wrote the last budget never had to keep one."

The Splitter

n., late-deciding

Has voted for both parties in the last four cycles and resents being told what she is. Decides in the final ten days, mostly on character.

Reads as
Independence
Moves on
The single credible detail, not the platform

"Two votes, two dates, on the record. Judge them yourself."

The Night Nurse

n., shift worker

Mid-career, watches the news on a phone between rounds, has no patience for anyone who has not done a hard job under pressure.

Reads as
Competence
Moves on
Proof that someone has carried weight and kept their head

"She ran a trauma floor for eleven years. You'll hear she has never run anything."

The Renter

n., downtown, under 35

Three employers on the résumé, a lease that resets every twelve months, and a commute that has quietly become the central fact of life.

Reads as
Momentum
Moves on
A candidate who names the rent and the commute in the first sentence

"Your lease resets in March. Your rent didn't ask permission."

The Pharmacist

n., exurban professional

Meticulous about sources, allergic to slogans, and will read the footnote if there is one. Trusts the messenger who shows the working.

Reads as
Skepticism
Moves on
The claim with its evidence attached

"Here is the ratio she wrote, the hospital that adopted it, and the audit that followed."

The Contractor

n., rural-exurban, self-employed

Runs a crew of four, bids every job against someone cheaper, and keeps his own books at the kitchen table on Sunday nights.

Reads as
Self-reliance
Moves on
The rule that cost him a week, named specifically

"Section 4 cost you a week in March. Here is who wrote it and who voted to repeal it."

Commerce Media Civic Household Health and work Bars show the signal domains that define each composite

The recordExhibits 3 to 5

Ninety-six in a hundred.

Across more than five hundred contests — presidential, gubernatorial, Senate and House, ballot measures, and over a hundred bond and levy elections — the programs we have designed have won ninety-six percent of the time, for candidates and causes across the spectrum. Client names are held under agreement. The methods and the margins are not.

Open the casebook

Exhibit 3Five hundred contests, one dot each. Ochre, won; bone, lost. Drawn from the firm's record across a decade; positions of the losses are schematic.
OfficeMethodNote
PresidentialHyper-localization of a national narrativeA 2016 national campaign; the message rewritten county by county for the places that decided it.
GubernatorialBehavioral targeting across three distinct strategiesThree competitive states, three different theories of the race, one measurement standard.
U.S. SenateThe neglect algorithmPersuadable voters both parties had stopped contacting, found and moved.
U.S. HouseGrassroots amplificationSmall-dollar and volunteer growth engineered from behavioral affinity, not lists.
Ballot measuresSimplifying complexityA 2022 California measure: 65 percent support at launch, 17.7 percent at the ballot.
Bonds and leviesConcrete, not abstractMore than a hundred measures; more than five billion dollars approved by voters raising their own taxes.
Committees and NGOsThe permanent campaignTrigger-based activation between cycles, so the audience is warm when it matters.
Exhibit 4The record, by office. Each method is a case in the casebook.
Exhibit 5Support for a 2022 California ballot measure. The launch figure is the campaign's baseline polling; the result is the official statewide vote of November 8, 2022 (17.7 percent yes). The intervening trajectory is drawn to scale between them. Program in field from the second month.
CasebookThree of nine

What the method did when it met a real race.

  • Simplifying complexity

    A California measure whose text ran to dozens of pages, at 65 percent support, defeated with 17.7 percent of the vote — one true sentence per voter.

  • The neglect algorithm

    The persuadable, likely voters both parties had stopped calling, found by cross-referencing contact history with receptivity.

  • Ten million, five countries

    A diaspora treated as the constituency it is, across the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, the UAE and Australia.

All nine cases

AbroadExhibit 6

The harder theaters.

The same discipline travels. Our people have run engagement, security and narrative programs for governments and institutions in the Gulf, South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Africa, and diaspora programs in five countries at once. Seven offices sit on a single desk, so a mandate in Riyadh and a race in Michigan are watched by someone who is awake.

Where we have worked

Diaspora as an electorate. A ten-million-person community spread across five countries is a constituency, whether or not anyone treats it as one. We do.

Featured readFrom the Brushworks Review
Also in the ReviewAll twenty-four papers
    The rules we work byFive things we will not do

    Five things we will not do.

    Written into every engagement letter, and the first page a donor's counsel or a ministry's compliance office is shown.

    I

    Target on identity

    We model behavior only. Ethnicity, religion and ideology are never modeled, never bought, and never accepted as a filter.

    So the Steward can be any color and any faith.

    II

    Hide the messenger

    Paid advocacy is labeled. We do not operate undisclosed personas or accounts, on any platform, in any language, for any client.

    So the second voice is a real one.

    III

    Report without a control

    Every program carries a randomized holdout sealed on day five, and every model beats a demographic and a look-alike baseline before it ships.

    So the number in the report is the number that happened.

    IV

    Cross a wall

    Independent-expenditure work is separated from candidate work by structure — teams, systems and seats. Foreign work is registered before it begins.

    So a donor's counsel can certify the posture, not take our word for it.

    V

    Run what we could not describe

    If a program could not be explained on the record, in public, in the client's name and ours, we do not run it. Mandates that fail the test are declined in writing.

    So there is nothing to find.

    The firm

    The voter is a person before they are a data point.

    A political practice built around that one idea, with strategy, research, modeling, creative and delivery in a single team under a single standard of proof.

    Brushworks is a political intelligence firm. Strategy, behavioral research, modeling, creative and delivery sit in one team under one measurement discipline, so that what the research finds is what the field executes and what the report shows.

    The practice grew out of a decade of campaign work — more than five hundred contests across every level of American politics — and a parallel body of institutional work abroad. The two inform each other. The hardest theaters teach discipline about evidence and restraint; American campaigns teach speed.

    We are a small firm by design. We take a limited number of programs each cycle, staff each with a full team, and decline the rest. The clients we keep are the ones who want to be told what happened rather than what they hoped.

    About the founder

    How we are organized

    Three practices, two studios, one wall.

    • Candidate practice

      Federal, statewide and local campaigns, from terrain through proof.

    • Independent-expenditure practice

      Donor-funded committees and issue programs, separated from the candidate practice by structure, systems and seats — not by memo.

    • International practice

      Institutional and diaspora mandates for governments and institutions, run with local partners across seven offices.

    • Research and modeling

      The human layer: signals, models, the publish gate, the holdout. Serves all three practices without crossing the wall.

    • Creative studio

      Master briefs, narrative tracks and variant production across three registers, every piece disclosed.

    • The desk

      Seven offices, fourteen hours of the clock, one continuous watch on every program in the field.

    OfficesLocal time, live
    Exhibit 1Seven offices, one desk. Drag to turn.

    Seven offices, fourteen hours.

    Washington and New York carry the candidate and independent-expenditure practices; Ottawa runs diaspora and North American institutional work; London and Munich serve Europe and the desk; Dubai serves the Gulf and South Asia; Tokyo serves Japan and Southeast Asia. Every office is on the same daily loop, so a program in the field is watched by whoever is awake.

      The rules we work byFive things we will not do

      Five things we will not do.

      Written into every engagement letter, and the first page a donor's counsel or a ministry's compliance office is shown.

      I

      Target on identity

      We model behavior only. Ethnicity, religion and ideology are never modeled, never bought, and never accepted as a filter.

      So the Steward can be any color and any faith.

      II

      Hide the messenger

      Paid advocacy is labeled. We do not operate undisclosed personas or accounts, on any platform, in any language, for any client.

      So the second voice is a real one.

      III

      Report without a control

      Every program carries a randomized holdout sealed on day five, and every model beats a demographic and a look-alike baseline before it ships.

      So the number in the report is the number that happened.

      IV

      Cross a wall

      Independent-expenditure work is separated from candidate work by structure — teams, systems and seats. Foreign work is registered before it begins.

      So a donor's counsel can certify the posture, not take our word for it.

      V

      Run what we could not describe

      If a program could not be explained on the record, in public, in the client's name and ours, we do not run it. Mandates that fail the test are declined in writing.

      So there is nothing to find.

      Policies and disclosures

      GovernanceWho signs what, and who checks

      A firm that can be audited.

      Political work is trusted or it is nothing. The governance of Brushworks is built so that a client, a donor's counsel, a committee treasurer or a ministry's compliance office can verify what we say rather than take our word for it: separate practices behind a documented wall, a compliance review that no program goes on air without, written sign-off gates with a reallocation threshold, a conflict register, and a channel for concerns that answers in writing. Each control has an owner inside the firm and a party outside it who can check it.

      Structure

      A Wyoming corporation whose whole business is political and institutional work, organized as a candidate practice, an independent-expenditure practice and an international practice.

      Verified by: engagement letters; counsel of record

      Practice walls

      Candidate and independent-expenditure work run on separate teams, systems and media seats. No person crosses during a cycle; no data, creative or plan does either.

      Verified by: certification available to any committee or counsel

      Compliance review

      Every program passes a signed review on day ten and before any material change: disclaimers, coordination, registration, sanctions, platform policy.

      Verified by: counsel of record; the signed review

      Client sign-off gates

      Strategy, creative masters and the media plan are approved in writing before execution. Reallocations above ten percent of any line need the same approval.

      Verified by: the client, or the contributors' advisory board

      Conflicts

      Never both sides of the same contest or question. A conflict register is reviewed before every engagement; mandates that cannot be described in public are declined in writing.

      Verified by: the register, on request

      Data and models

      The data use policy binds every employee and vendor; a data protection lead owns retention and rights requests; the publish gate and the kill log are reported to clients.

      Verified by: audit rights; the proof report

      Read the governance policy in full

      Start againCapabilities

      Brief us.

      Tell us the race, the calendar and the margin. Within a week we will tell you whether we can move it and what it would take. Candidate work and independent-expenditure work are taken by separate teams; say which you are. Governments and institutions: tell us the mandate and the jurisdiction, and we will tell you what registration it requires before we say anything else.

      Send a brief

      brief@brwrks.com
      Candidate practice
      Independent-expenditure practice
      International practice
      Brushworks, Inc. — a Wyoming corporation
      Washington, New York, Ottawa, London, Munich, Dubai, Tokyo