Brushworks
Brief us

Political strategy and data, at human resolution

Elections are decided by people, not demographics. We work at that scale.

Brushworks is a political intelligence firm. We model how individual voters behave, determine what would move each of them, and put persuasion into the field with a standard of proof — across the United States and in the harder theaters abroad.

  1. 1. The file
  2. 2. Signals resolve
  3. 3. Deciders surface
  4. 4. A program in field
Plate IFour thousand people as the voter file sees them: identical rows, nothing to tell one from another.
500+contests, from presidential to school board, over a decade
96%won, across every level and both parties
$5B+approved in more than a hundred bond and levy measures
270M+American adults and households, resolved and behaviorally scored
12countries of institutional and diaspora work
7offices on a single 24-hour desk
The premise

Most campaigns still buy the electorate the way television networks sold it in 1985: by age, sex, county and party file. Those labels are easy to purchase and easy to defend in a budget meeting. They are also the reason two neighbors with identical demographics receive identical mail and vote in opposite directions.

People do not decide as categories. They decide as individuals, under pressure, with whatever they happened to pay attention to that month. That attention leaves traces — what someone reads, buys, searches, cancels, renews, drives past on the way to work. Read carefully and modeled properly, those traces describe a person far better than the file does: what they are anxious about, what they take pride in, whom they trust, and what they have quietly stopped believing.

Brushworks was built to work at that resolution. We do the research, the modeling, the message architecture and the delivery ourselves, through our own media seats, and we measure every program against a held-out control — so that what we report at the end is what actually happened.

What we doThe method, in five movements

Terrain, audience, message, delivery, proof.

The order matters. Nothing is built before the race is mapped; nothing is written before the deciders are named; nothing is reported that was not measured against a control.

Capabilities in full

  1. I

    Terrain

    Where the race will actually be decided: the precincts, the margin, the money coming against you, and the clock.

  2. II

    Audience

    Deciders identified by what they do rather than by label, and grouped by what would move them.

  3. III

    Message

    A narrative track for each group, built from the anxieties and hopes it already holds and sequenced for the persuasion arc.

  4. IV

    Delivery

    Three registers: precision paid media, organic advocacy, and the ambient campaign. All of it disclosed, all of it through our own seats.

  5. V

    Proof

    Randomized holdouts, daily measurement, and a publish gate no model passes without beating the baseline.

The human layerExhibit 1

One person, seventeen thousand signals.

Our view of the American electorate is assembled from roughly sixty-two billion observed behaviors, resolved to more than 270 million adults and their households, organized into a ten-thousand-topic dictionary, and scored by models trained on real outcomes rather than proxies.

No single signal is decisive. The pattern is. A subscription cancelled, a commute lengthened, a local news habit, a sudden interest in prescription prices — each is noise on its own and evidence together. The graph is rebuilt monthly, digital activity refreshed daily, and none of it touches ethnicity, religion or ideology, which we do not model.

Inside the human layer

Exhibit 1The active signal registry, drawn to scale by domain — roughly 17,000 signals, each line a family of observed behaviors. Ochre marks signals that entered a scored model this month. Grouping illustrative.
From the behavioral lexiconExhibit 2, composites, not individuals

A campaign speaks to millions. It persuades one at a time.

Every other vendor in politics starts from the voter file, because that is what there is to buy: age band, sex, party, precinct, vote history. It is enough to send mail. It is not enough to know what to say. We describe deciders as phenotypes — composite people assembled from thousands of behavioral neighbors — so that a strategist and a copywriter can hold an entire segment in mind as a single person, and so that the person receives a line that was written for her.

Exhibit 2The same voter, two ways. Left, everything the voter file knows about the Night Nurse. Right, what the human layer knows — signals color-coded by domain, six scores, and the track she was assigned. Composite; the file's fields are typical, the signals illustrative.
  • Behavior, not labels.

    Cohorts are built from what people do — sixty-two billion observed events — never from ethnicity, religion or party as a proxy for what they will do.

    The category default: age band, sex, party, precinct

  • Named, and written for.

    Each cohort is a person with a name, a narrative track and a register mix. Copy is written to her; the studio produces the variants; every one carries a disclosure.

    The category default: one message, three demographic cuts

  • Measured against a control.

    Every track is judged against a randomized holdout. A line that moves the Steward and suppresses the Pharmacist is caught in week two, not guessed at in November.

    The category default: a post-election poll

The Steward

n., first-ring suburb

Homeowner, twenty years at the same employer, runs the parish fish fry. Believes the deal has been broken by people who never had to keep one.

Reads as
Order, obligation, the fair deal
Moves on
Cost-of-living arithmetic told with respect, not alarm

"The people who wrote the last budget never had to keep one."

The Splitter

n., late-deciding

Has voted for both parties in the last four cycles and resents being told what she is. Decides in the final ten days, mostly on character.

Reads as
Independence
Moves on
The single credible detail, not the platform

"Two votes, two dates, on the record. Judge them yourself."

The Night Nurse

n., shift worker

Mid-career, watches the news on a phone between rounds, has no patience for anyone who has not done a hard job under pressure.

Reads as
Competence
Moves on
Proof that someone has carried weight and kept their head

"She ran a trauma floor for eleven years. You'll hear she has never run anything."

The Renter

n., downtown, under 35

Three employers on the résumé, a lease that resets every twelve months, and a commute that has quietly become the central fact of life.

Reads as
Momentum
Moves on
A candidate who names the rent and the commute in the first sentence

"Your lease resets in March. Your rent didn't ask permission."

The Pharmacist

n., exurban professional

Meticulous about sources, allergic to slogans, and will read the footnote if there is one. Trusts the messenger who shows the working.

Reads as
Skepticism
Moves on
The claim with its evidence attached

"Here is the ratio she wrote, the hospital that adopted it, and the audit that followed."

The Contractor

n., rural-exurban, self-employed

Runs a crew of four, bids every job against someone cheaper, and keeps his own books at the kitchen table on Sunday nights.

Reads as
Self-reliance
Moves on
The rule that cost him a week, named specifically

"Section 4 cost you a week in March. Here is who wrote it and who voted to repeal it."

Commerce Media Civic Household Health and work Bars show the signal domains that define each composite

The recordExhibits 3 to 5

Ninety-six in a hundred.

Across more than five hundred contests — presidential, gubernatorial, Senate and House, ballot measures, and over a hundred bond and levy elections — the programs we have designed have won ninety-six percent of the time, for candidates and causes across the spectrum. Client names are held under agreement. The methods and the margins are not.

Open the casebook

Exhibit 3Five hundred contests, one dot each. Ochre, won; bone, lost. Drawn from the firm's record across a decade; positions of the losses are schematic.
OfficeMethodNote
PresidentialHyper-localization of a national narrativeA 2016 national campaign; the message rewritten county by county for the places that decided it.
GubernatorialBehavioral targeting across three distinct strategiesThree competitive states, three different theories of the race, one measurement standard.
U.S. SenateThe neglect algorithmPersuadable voters both parties had stopped contacting, found and moved.
U.S. HouseGrassroots amplificationSmall-dollar and volunteer growth engineered from behavioral affinity, not lists.
Ballot measuresSimplifying complexityA 2022 California measure: 65 percent support at launch, 17.7 percent at the ballot.
Bonds and leviesConcrete, not abstractMore than a hundred measures; more than five billion dollars approved by voters raising their own taxes.
Committees and NGOsThe permanent campaignTrigger-based activation between cycles, so the audience is warm when it matters.
Exhibit 4The record, by office. Each method is a case in the casebook.
Exhibit 5Support for a 2022 California ballot measure. The launch figure is the campaign's baseline polling; the result is the official statewide vote of November 8, 2022 (17.7 percent yes). The intervening trajectory is drawn to scale between them. Program in field from the second month.
CasebookThree of nine

What the method did when it met a real race.

  • Simplifying complexity

    A California measure whose text ran to dozens of pages, at 65 percent support, defeated with 17.7 percent of the vote — one true sentence per voter.

  • The neglect algorithm

    The persuadable, likely voters both parties had stopped calling, found by cross-referencing contact history with receptivity.

  • Ten million, five countries

    A diaspora treated as the constituency it is, across the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, the UAE and Australia.

All nine cases

AbroadExhibit 6

The harder theaters.

The same discipline travels. Our people have run engagement, security and narrative programs for governments and institutions in the Gulf, South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Africa, and diaspora programs in five countries at once. Seven offices sit on a single desk, so a mandate in Riyadh and a race in Michigan are watched by someone who is awake.

Where we have worked

Diaspora as an electorate. A ten-million-person community spread across five countries is a constituency, whether or not anyone treats it as one. We do.

Featured readFrom the Brushworks Review
Also in the ReviewAll twenty-four papers
    The rules we work byFive things we will not do

    Five things we will not do.

    Written into every engagement letter, and the first page a donor's counsel or a ministry's compliance office is shown.

    I

    Target on identity

    We model behavior only. Ethnicity, religion and ideology are never modeled, never bought, and never accepted as a filter.

    So the Steward can be any color and any faith.

    II

    Hide the messenger

    Paid advocacy is labeled. We do not operate undisclosed personas or accounts, on any platform, in any language, for any client.

    So the second voice is a real one.

    III

    Report without a control

    Every program carries a randomized holdout sealed on day five, and every model beats a demographic and a look-alike baseline before it ships.

    So the number in the report is the number that happened.

    IV

    Cross a wall

    Independent-expenditure work is separated from candidate work by structure — teams, systems and seats. Foreign work is registered before it begins.

    So a donor's counsel can certify the posture, not take our word for it.

    V

    Run what we could not describe

    If a program could not be explained on the record, in public, in the client's name and ours, we do not run it. Mandates that fail the test are declined in writing.

    So there is nothing to find.

    WP-10 — Doctrine

    The engineering of consent, a century on

    Wheeler, Bernays and the temperance movement built the first message regime. What they understood about saturation that the attention economy forgot.

    By Adam SyedSeptember 2026Working paper

    Abstract. Long before behavioral data, the temperance movement demonstrated that a public could be moved by a saturating regime of message rather than a single argument. We revisit Wheeler and Bernays as practitioners, and argue that behavioral intelligence restores at individual scale what they achieved at the scale of a nation.

    In brief

    The finding
    Wheeler and Bernays wrote the five axioms every persuasion practitioner still works from; a century of evidence upholds four and reverses the fifth — the invisible hand — because undisclosed persuasion can now be neither trusted nor known to work.
    For a campaign
    The modern program is Wheeler’s map drawn from behavior, Bernays’ second voice cast from real people, and a control the founders never had. Segment, feel, narrate — and disclose and measure.
    For a government or institution
    Governments inherit the same doctrine and the same break: constituency by constituency, through trusted voices, in the open, with a control.

    Two men who never met rewired the American public in the first third of the twentieth century, and the discipline that runs campaigns today is their inheritance. Wayne Wheeler did it without a theory, from an office in Ohio, by discovering that a nation could be moved if each of its constituencies was told a different true-enough story about the same bottle. Edward Bernays did it with a theory borrowed from his uncle, from an office in Manhattan, by discovering that people would adopt a product, a habit or a cause if it were attached to who they wished to be. Between them they wrote the five axioms every persuasion practitioner still works from, whether or not she has read them. A century on, four of the five have survived contact with the evidence. The fifth has not, and its failure is the most important thing that has happened in the field.

    The cartographer of fear

    The Anti-Saloon League was founded at Oberlin in 1893 and, by the time Wheeler took over its national operation, had invented something the country had not seen: an organization that cared about one issue, aligned with no party, and would deliver its voters to whichever candidate would deliver its policy. Wheeler called it pressure politics. Its instrument was not the mass rally but the constituency, and its genius was that the constituency was told what it needed to hear.

    To the churches, the League's literature spoke of sin and the pulpit's duty. To women, in the era before their suffrage was complete, it spoke of the drunken husband, the wages drunk away, the children who cowered — the posters were specific to the point of cruelty, and specificity was the point. To employers it spoke of productivity: the worker who arrived on Monday sober was worth more than the one who did not. To the worker it spoke of exploitation: the saloon as the boss's instrument for keeping labor poor. In wartime it spoke of loyalty, and made the German-American brewer a question of patriotism. In the small towns it spoke of order. The same policy, six frames, each aimed. Wheeler did not persuade America to ban alcohol. He persuaded a dozen Americas, each hearing its own argument, to march in the same direction — and in January 1920 the Eighteenth Amendment took effect.

    The League's constituencies and the frame each received, reconstructed from its literature and from Okrent's history. Darker is heavier use. No constituency received the whole map; each received the cell that would move it. It is the segment matrix, a century before the word.

    The architect of desire

    Bernays was Freud's nephew and made the connection explicit: people do not decide and then feel; they feel, and then find reasons. His Crystallizing Public Opinion of 1923 and Propaganda of 1928 set out a method for a "conscious and intelligent manipulation of the organized habits and opinions of the masses," which he called, without embarrassment, an invisible government. His 1947 essay gave the discipline its permanent name: the engineering of consent.

    The cases are famous because they worked. On Easter Sunday 1929, young women recruited for the purpose lit cigarettes on Fifth Avenue in front of photographers he had alerted; the newspapers reported a gesture of liberation — "torches of freedom," a phrase supplied by a psychoanalyst he had consulted — and never mentioned the American Tobacco Company. A survey of physicians, asked whether a heavier breakfast might be healthier, became a national headline and, in time, a national breakfast, for the benefit of a bacon packer. In each case the product was never argued for. An identity was offered, a symbol attached to it, and a story released into the press as if it had happened on its own. Bernays gave Wheeler's instinct a vocabulary and a theory, and the two together are the classical doctrine.

    A century of doctrine. The League and Wheeler build the segmented campaign; Lippmann and Bernays supply its theory; Katz and Lazarsfeld discover the second voice; the field experiment, from Gerber and Green's 2000 study onward, supplies the thing none of them had — a control.

    The five axioms, and what the evidence says

    Emotion over reason. Held up, largely. Zaller's account of how opinions form, the motivated-reasoning literature after Lodge and Taber, and the whole of behavioral economics agree that affect leads and cognition follows. The qualification is that feeling is not the opposite of fact: the frames that survive rebuttal are the emotional ones a voter can check.

    Identity as the lever. Qualified, and the qualification matters. Identity moves people, as Bernays saw; but identity labels are a poor predictor of what a given person will do, and a campaign that targets on them is speaking to the average of a category. Behavior predicts the act. The lever is real; the map to it is not the one Bernays would have drawn.

    Segmentation as strategy. Held up, and become the discipline's center. Wheeler's six constituencies are today's seven cohorts. What has changed is the basis: the segment is defined by what people attend to and act on, not by the institution they belong to, because the institution predicts the average and the behavior predicts the person.

    Narrative over argument. Held up with a correction. A story lodges; an argument provokes a counterargument, as the doctrine says. But on a checkable claim the specific sentence beats the story, because it invites verification rather than rebuttal, and a ballot measure is nothing but checkable claims.

    The invisible hand. Reversed. This is the axiom the century overturned, and the reasons are practical before they are ethical. The undisclosed messenger is now detected, and detection converts a persuasive act into a scandal that persuades the other way. The undisclosed placement cannot be audited, so its effect cannot be known even to its sponsor. And the doctrine's own greatest weakness, from Wheeler to Bernays, was that neither man ever knew what worked; they had outcomes and no control, and a century of practitioners inherited their confidence without their results. Disclosure and measurement are not constraints on the classical doctrine. They are what it was missing.

    The five axioms against the evidence. Four survive, with qualifications the founders could not have known. The fifth — the invisible hand — is reversed: the modern method discloses every messenger and measures every act against a control, because the alternative can be neither trusted nor known to work.

    The inheritance, and the break

    A modern program is Wheeler's map drawn from behavior rather than institution, Bernays' identity offered through a real second voice rather than a recruited one, and a sealed control the founders never had. Cohorts are named and written for, as the League's constituencies were. Validators carry the argument, as the Fifth Avenue marchers did — except that the validators are who they say they are, and say who asked. Every placement carries its disclosure. Every line is measured against a holdout drawn before the first dollar, so that the program knows, week by week, what the founders could only assert at the end.

    The inheritance and the break. Each row is something the classical doctrine did and what a modern program does in its place. The first three rows are continuity; the last two are the break, and the last is the one the founders would have wanted most.
    What we took, and what we refused. From Wheeler: the constituency, the frame aimed at it, pressure politics as a discipline rather than a mood. From Bernays: the primacy of feeling, the symbol, the second voice. What we refused: the invisible hand. Every messenger is disclosed and every claim is measured, not because the law requires it — though it does — but because a program that cannot be described in public cannot be audited, and a program that cannot be audited cannot be known to work.

    A century on

    The interesting question is not whether the classical doctrine was effective. It plainly was; a constitutional amendment and a national breakfast are not small results. The question is what it would have been with a control. Wheeler could not tell which of his six frames carried the amendment and which rode along; Bernays could not distinguish the effect of the torches from the effect of the decade. Both built their reputations on outcomes they could not decompose, and the field that inherited them spent most of a century doing the same. The behavioral turn and the experimental turn, arriving together in the last two decades, gave the discipline the two things its founders lacked: a map of the person rather than the category, and a way to know. The engineering of consent, a century on, is the same craft, practiced in the open, with a control.

    Notes and references

    1. Okrent, D. (2010). Last Call: The Rise and Fall of Prohibition. Scribner — on Wheeler, the League and pressure politics.
    2. Kerr, K. A. (1985). Organized for Prohibition: A New History of the Anti-Saloon League. Yale University Press.
    3. Bernays, E. L. (1923). Crystallizing Public Opinion. Boni and Liveright; (1928) Propaganda. Horace Liveright; (1947) The engineering of consent. Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, 250(1), 113–120.
    4. Tye, L. (1998). The Father of Spin: Edward L. Bernays and the Birth of Public Relations. Crown — on the Torches of Freedom and the breakfast survey.
    5. Lippmann, W. (1922). Public Opinion. Harcourt, Brace.
    6. Zaller, J. R. (1992). The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. Cambridge University Press; Taber, C. S., and Lodge, M. (2006). Motivated skepticism in the evaluation of political beliefs. American Journal of Political Science, 50(3), 755–769.
    7. Katz, E., and Lazarsfeld, P. F. (1955). Personal Influence. Free Press.
    8. Gerber, A. S., and Green, D. P. (2000). The effects of canvassing, telephone calls, and direct mail on voter turnout: a field experiment. American Political Science Review, 94(3), 653–663; Kalla, J. L., and Broockman, D. E. (2018). American Political Science Review, 112(1), 148–166.
    9. The frame matrix is a reconstruction from the League's literature and secondary histories, not a quantitative record; it is drawn to make the structural point.
    Next paperThe Review

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    Tell us the race, the calendar and the margin. Within a week we will tell you whether we can move it and what it would take. Candidate work and independent-expenditure work are taken by separate teams; say which you are. Governments and institutions: tell us the mandate and the jurisdiction, and we will tell you what registration it requires before we say anything else.

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