Brushworks
Brief us

Political strategy and data, at human resolution

Elections are decided by people, not demographics. We work at that scale.

Brushworks is a political intelligence firm. We model how individual voters behave, determine what would move each of them, and put persuasion into the field with a standard of proof — across the United States and in the harder theaters abroad.

  1. 1. The file
  2. 2. Signals resolve
  3. 3. Deciders surface
  4. 4. A program in field
Plate IFour thousand people as the voter file sees them: identical rows, nothing to tell one from another.
500+contests, from presidential to school board, over a decade
96%won, across every level and both parties
$5B+approved in more than a hundred bond and levy measures
270M+American adults and households, resolved and behaviorally scored
12countries of institutional and diaspora work
7offices on a single 24-hour desk
The premise

Most campaigns still buy the electorate the way television networks sold it in 1985: by age, sex, county and party file. Those labels are easy to purchase and easy to defend in a budget meeting. They are also the reason two neighbors with identical demographics receive identical mail and vote in opposite directions.

People do not decide as categories. They decide as individuals, under pressure, with whatever they happened to pay attention to that month. That attention leaves traces — what someone reads, buys, searches, cancels, renews, drives past on the way to work. Read carefully and modeled properly, those traces describe a person far better than the file does: what they are anxious about, what they take pride in, whom they trust, and what they have quietly stopped believing.

Brushworks was built to work at that resolution. We do the research, the modeling, the message architecture and the delivery ourselves, through our own media seats, and we measure every program against a held-out control — so that what we report at the end is what actually happened.

What we doThe method, in five movements

Terrain, audience, message, delivery, proof.

The order matters. Nothing is built before the race is mapped; nothing is written before the deciders are named; nothing is reported that was not measured against a control.

Capabilities in full

  1. I

    Terrain

    Where the race will actually be decided: the precincts, the margin, the money coming against you, and the clock.

  2. II

    Audience

    Deciders identified by what they do rather than by label, and grouped by what would move them.

  3. III

    Message

    A narrative track for each group, built from the anxieties and hopes it already holds and sequenced for the persuasion arc.

  4. IV

    Delivery

    Three registers: precision paid media, organic advocacy, and the ambient campaign. All of it disclosed, all of it through our own seats.

  5. V

    Proof

    Randomized holdouts, daily measurement, and a publish gate no model passes without beating the baseline.

The human layerExhibit 1

One person, seventeen thousand signals.

Our view of the American electorate is assembled from roughly sixty-two billion observed behaviors, resolved to more than 270 million adults and their households, organized into a ten-thousand-topic dictionary, and scored by models trained on real outcomes rather than proxies.

No single signal is decisive. The pattern is. A subscription cancelled, a commute lengthened, a local news habit, a sudden interest in prescription prices — each is noise on its own and evidence together. The graph is rebuilt monthly, digital activity refreshed daily, and none of it touches ethnicity, religion or ideology, which we do not model.

Inside the human layer

Exhibit 1The active signal registry, drawn to scale by domain — roughly 17,000 signals, each line a family of observed behaviors. Ochre marks signals that entered a scored model this month. Grouping illustrative.
From the behavioral lexiconExhibit 2, composites, not individuals

A campaign speaks to millions. It persuades one at a time.

Every other vendor in politics starts from the voter file, because that is what there is to buy: age band, sex, party, precinct, vote history. It is enough to send mail. It is not enough to know what to say. We describe deciders as phenotypes — composite people assembled from thousands of behavioral neighbors — so that a strategist and a copywriter can hold an entire segment in mind as a single person, and so that the person receives a line that was written for her.

Exhibit 2The same voter, two ways. Left, everything the voter file knows about the Night Nurse. Right, what the human layer knows — signals color-coded by domain, six scores, and the track she was assigned. Composite; the file's fields are typical, the signals illustrative.
  • Behavior, not labels.

    Cohorts are built from what people do — sixty-two billion observed events — never from ethnicity, religion or party as a proxy for what they will do.

    The category default: age band, sex, party, precinct

  • Named, and written for.

    Each cohort is a person with a name, a narrative track and a register mix. Copy is written to her; the studio produces the variants; every one carries a disclosure.

    The category default: one message, three demographic cuts

  • Measured against a control.

    Every track is judged against a randomized holdout. A line that moves the Steward and suppresses the Pharmacist is caught in week two, not guessed at in November.

    The category default: a post-election poll

The Steward

n., first-ring suburb

Homeowner, twenty years at the same employer, runs the parish fish fry. Believes the deal has been broken by people who never had to keep one.

Reads as
Order, obligation, the fair deal
Moves on
Cost-of-living arithmetic told with respect, not alarm

"The people who wrote the last budget never had to keep one."

The Splitter

n., late-deciding

Has voted for both parties in the last four cycles and resents being told what she is. Decides in the final ten days, mostly on character.

Reads as
Independence
Moves on
The single credible detail, not the platform

"Two votes, two dates, on the record. Judge them yourself."

The Night Nurse

n., shift worker

Mid-career, watches the news on a phone between rounds, has no patience for anyone who has not done a hard job under pressure.

Reads as
Competence
Moves on
Proof that someone has carried weight and kept their head

"She ran a trauma floor for eleven years. You'll hear she has never run anything."

The Renter

n., downtown, under 35

Three employers on the résumé, a lease that resets every twelve months, and a commute that has quietly become the central fact of life.

Reads as
Momentum
Moves on
A candidate who names the rent and the commute in the first sentence

"Your lease resets in March. Your rent didn't ask permission."

The Pharmacist

n., exurban professional

Meticulous about sources, allergic to slogans, and will read the footnote if there is one. Trusts the messenger who shows the working.

Reads as
Skepticism
Moves on
The claim with its evidence attached

"Here is the ratio she wrote, the hospital that adopted it, and the audit that followed."

The Contractor

n., rural-exurban, self-employed

Runs a crew of four, bids every job against someone cheaper, and keeps his own books at the kitchen table on Sunday nights.

Reads as
Self-reliance
Moves on
The rule that cost him a week, named specifically

"Section 4 cost you a week in March. Here is who wrote it and who voted to repeal it."

Commerce Media Civic Household Health and work Bars show the signal domains that define each composite

The recordExhibits 3 to 5

Ninety-six in a hundred.

Across more than five hundred contests — presidential, gubernatorial, Senate and House, ballot measures, and over a hundred bond and levy elections — the programs we have designed have won ninety-six percent of the time, for candidates and causes across the spectrum. Client names are held under agreement. The methods and the margins are not.

Open the casebook

Exhibit 3Five hundred contests, one dot each. Ochre, won; bone, lost. Drawn from the firm's record across a decade; positions of the losses are schematic.
OfficeMethodNote
PresidentialHyper-localization of a national narrativeA 2016 national campaign; the message rewritten county by county for the places that decided it.
GubernatorialBehavioral targeting across three distinct strategiesThree competitive states, three different theories of the race, one measurement standard.
U.S. SenateThe neglect algorithmPersuadable voters both parties had stopped contacting, found and moved.
U.S. HouseGrassroots amplificationSmall-dollar and volunteer growth engineered from behavioral affinity, not lists.
Ballot measuresSimplifying complexityA 2022 California measure: 65 percent support at launch, 17.7 percent at the ballot.
Bonds and leviesConcrete, not abstractMore than a hundred measures; more than five billion dollars approved by voters raising their own taxes.
Committees and NGOsThe permanent campaignTrigger-based activation between cycles, so the audience is warm when it matters.
Exhibit 4The record, by office. Each method is a case in the casebook.
Exhibit 5Support for a 2022 California ballot measure. The launch figure is the campaign's baseline polling; the result is the official statewide vote of November 8, 2022 (17.7 percent yes). The intervening trajectory is drawn to scale between them. Program in field from the second month.
CasebookThree of nine

What the method did when it met a real race.

  • Simplifying complexity

    A California measure whose text ran to dozens of pages, at 65 percent support, defeated with 17.7 percent of the vote — one true sentence per voter.

  • The neglect algorithm

    The persuadable, likely voters both parties had stopped calling, found by cross-referencing contact history with receptivity.

  • Ten million, five countries

    A diaspora treated as the constituency it is, across the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, the UAE and Australia.

All nine cases

AbroadExhibit 6

The harder theaters.

The same discipline travels. Our people have run engagement, security and narrative programs for governments and institutions in the Gulf, South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Africa, and diaspora programs in five countries at once. Seven offices sit on a single desk, so a mandate in Riyadh and a race in Michigan are watched by someone who is awake.

Where we have worked

Diaspora as an electorate. A ten-million-person community spread across five countries is a constituency, whether or not anyone treats it as one. We do.

Featured readFrom the Brushworks Review
Also in the ReviewAll twenty-four papers
    The rules we work byFive things we will not do

    Five things we will not do.

    Written into every engagement letter, and the first page a donor's counsel or a ministry's compliance office is shown.

    I

    Target on identity

    We model behavior only. Ethnicity, religion and ideology are never modeled, never bought, and never accepted as a filter.

    So the Steward can be any color and any faith.

    II

    Hide the messenger

    Paid advocacy is labeled. We do not operate undisclosed personas or accounts, on any platform, in any language, for any client.

    So the second voice is a real one.

    III

    Report without a control

    Every program carries a randomized holdout sealed on day five, and every model beats a demographic and a look-alike baseline before it ships.

    So the number in the report is the number that happened.

    IV

    Cross a wall

    Independent-expenditure work is separated from candidate work by structure — teams, systems and seats. Foreign work is registered before it begins.

    So a donor's counsel can certify the posture, not take our word for it.

    V

    Run what we could not describe

    If a program could not be explained on the record, in public, in the client's name and ours, we do not run it. Mandates that fail the test are declined in writing.

    So there is nothing to find.

    WP-12 — Delivery

    Single-origin media

    Why a program can only be audited if the buyer owns every seat it was bought through.

    By Brushworks research deskSeptember 2026Working paper

    Abstract. When media is placed through a mix of vendor, committee and agency accounts, attribution becomes a negotiation. We set out the single-origin rule — every placement from the firm’s own accounts of record — and the audit trail it makes possible from invoice to impression to holdout.

    In brief

    The finding
    A program can be audited and measured only if every placement originates from one account of record the firm controls; multi-vendor buys lose a majority of the dollar and break the holdout.
    For a campaign
    Ask who holds the seats, ask to see the suppression list applied at every one, and treat platform attribution as an opinion rather than a measurement.
    For a government or institution
    For governments and institutions, single-origin media is what makes a program describable in public from invoice to impression — and what allows a performance assurance to attach to anything.

    A program can only be audited if every dollar in it can be followed from the invoice to the person it reached, and it can only be improved if what that person did can be compared with what a person who was not reached did. Both require that every placement, in every channel, originate from one account of record that the firm controls. This is single-origin media. It is unglamorous, it costs the firm the margins that intermediaries enjoy, and it is the only condition under which a program's claims — and the firm's performance assurance — can attach to anything.

    The problem with the usual buy

    A conventional campaign media plan is a supply chain. The general consultant retains a media buyer, who works through an agency trading desk, which buys through several demand-side platforms, which bid on exchanges, which sell inventory from publishers the campaign has never heard of. Each link takes a fee and each link loses information. The Association of National Advertisers' 2023 supply-chain study, the most thorough public audit of the open programmatic market, found that only a fraction of a programmatic dollar reached working media, that roughly a fifth of impressions landed on made-for-advertising sites, and that a substantial share of spend could not be traced at all. Political buying is worse, because it is faster, more seasonal, and run by vendors whose incentives are aligned with volume.

    Where a programmatic dollar goes in a multi-vendor political buy and in a single-origin buy, illustrative shares drawn from the ANA's supply-chain findings and the firm's own seat reporting. The difference is not cleverness; it is the number of hands the dollar passes through.

    What single-origin means

    Every placement originates from a Brushworks account of record in each platform: the social seats, the search seats, the connected-television and programmatic seats, the mail house, the relational tool. The firm holds the credentials, the invoices and the logs. Audiences leave the platform as hashed identifiers matched inside the seats; raw personal data never travels. Because one party placed everything, one party can answer the question every treasurer and every donor's counsel eventually asks — where did the money go, and what did it do — from the invoice to the impression to the holdout comparison, without a single link that belongs to someone else.

    The audit trail. Invoice to placement to impression to the holdout comparison to the proof report, with no link owned by a third party. The holdout sits outside the delivery path so that the comparison is against people the seats never reached.

    Why measurement requires it

    A randomized holdout is only a control if it was never contacted. In a multi-vendor buy the campaign cannot guarantee that: a vendor with its own list, its own seat and its own optimizer reaches whom it reaches, and the holdout leaks. Single origin is what makes the holdout enforceable — the suppression list is applied at every seat by the party that drew it — and what makes register-level measurement possible, because the firm can see, for every impression, which register, which cohort, which hour and which line. Attribution, which platforms offer in place of measurement, credits the last impression before an act. The holdout credits the program with what would not otherwise have happened, and only single origin can build one.

    Cumulative favorability lift per increment of spend under a single-origin, measured program and a multi-vendor, attributed one, illustrative. The multi-vendor line flattens because spend is reallocated on attribution, which rewards the placements that reached people who were already moving; the single-origin line keeps rising because reallocation follows the holdout.
    The assurance. For qualifying programs the firm backs its fees with an underwritten performance assurance. It attaches only to media placed through the firm's own seats, because no underwriter would attach it to media the firm cannot trace, and neither would we.

    Objections

    The campaign's existing vendors have relationships and rates. They do, and the rates are visible only after the fees the relationships conceal. A single-origin buy can be audited at any line; the client's audit right is written into the engagement.

    Single origin concentrates risk. It concentrates accountability. A seat suspended by a platform is a real risk and is managed by redundancy across seats and channels, which the desk maintains as a matter of course; a program spread across a dozen vendors has a dozen such risks and no one responsible for any of them.

    The firm is marking a position. Yes. Single origin is the firm's condition for running a program, and it is the reason the firm can say what the program did.

    Implications for a buyer

    • Ask who holds the seats. If the answer is a list of vendors, the audit trail is already broken.
    • Ask to see the suppression applied. A holdout that is not enforced at every seat is not a holdout.
    • Ask for the proof report's chain. Invoice, placement, impression, comparison — each in the same document.
    • Treat attribution as a platform's opinion. It is not measurement, and no one selling it will draw you a control.

    Notes and references

    1. Association of National Advertisers (2023). ANA Programmatic Media Supply Chain Transparency Study: First Look and Complete Report — on working-media share, made-for-advertising inventory and untraceable spend in the open programmatic market.
    2. Gordon, B. R., Zettelmeyer, F., Bhargava, N., and Chapsky, D. (2019). A comparison of approaches to advertising measurement. Marketing Science, 38(2), 193–225 — on attribution against experiments.
    3. Johnson, G. A., Lewis, R. A., and Nubbemeyer, E. I. (2017). Ghost ads. Journal of Marketing Research, 54(6), 867–884.
    4. Brushworks disclosures policy, §7 (the performance assurance); data use policy, §1 (hashed activation) and §7 (audit).
    Next paperThe Review

    Brief us.

    Tell us the race, the calendar and the margin. Within a week we will tell you whether we can move it and what it would take. Candidate work and independent-expenditure work are taken by separate teams; say which you are. Governments and institutions: tell us the mandate and the jurisdiction, and we will tell you what registration it requires before we say anything else.

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