Brushworks
Brief us

Political strategy and data, at human resolution

Elections are decided by people, not demographics. We work at that scale.

Brushworks is a political intelligence firm. We model how individual voters behave, determine what would move each of them, and put persuasion into the field with a standard of proof — across the United States and in the harder theaters abroad.

  1. 1. The file
  2. 2. Signals resolve
  3. 3. Deciders surface
  4. 4. A program in field
Plate IFour thousand people as the voter file sees them: identical rows, nothing to tell one from another.
500+contests, from presidential to school board, over a decade
96%won, across every level and both parties
$5B+approved in more than a hundred bond and levy measures
270M+American adults and households, resolved and behaviorally scored
12countries of institutional and diaspora work
7offices on a single 24-hour desk
The premise

Most campaigns still buy the electorate the way television networks sold it in 1985: by age, sex, county and party file. Those labels are easy to purchase and easy to defend in a budget meeting. They are also the reason two neighbors with identical demographics receive identical mail and vote in opposite directions.

People do not decide as categories. They decide as individuals, under pressure, with whatever they happened to pay attention to that month. That attention leaves traces — what someone reads, buys, searches, cancels, renews, drives past on the way to work. Read carefully and modeled properly, those traces describe a person far better than the file does: what they are anxious about, what they take pride in, whom they trust, and what they have quietly stopped believing.

Brushworks was built to work at that resolution. We do the research, the modeling, the message architecture and the delivery ourselves, through our own media seats, and we measure every program against a held-out control — so that what we report at the end is what actually happened.

What we doThe method, in five movements

Terrain, audience, message, delivery, proof.

The order matters. Nothing is built before the race is mapped; nothing is written before the deciders are named; nothing is reported that was not measured against a control.

Capabilities in full

  1. I

    Terrain

    Where the race will actually be decided: the precincts, the margin, the money coming against you, and the clock.

  2. II

    Audience

    Deciders identified by what they do rather than by label, and grouped by what would move them.

  3. III

    Message

    A narrative track for each group, built from the anxieties and hopes it already holds and sequenced for the persuasion arc.

  4. IV

    Delivery

    Three registers: precision paid media, organic advocacy, and the ambient campaign. All of it disclosed, all of it through our own seats.

  5. V

    Proof

    Randomized holdouts, daily measurement, and a publish gate no model passes without beating the baseline.

The human layerExhibit 1

One person, seventeen thousand signals.

Our view of the American electorate is assembled from roughly sixty-two billion observed behaviors, resolved to more than 270 million adults and their households, organized into a ten-thousand-topic dictionary, and scored by models trained on real outcomes rather than proxies.

No single signal is decisive. The pattern is. A subscription cancelled, a commute lengthened, a local news habit, a sudden interest in prescription prices — each is noise on its own and evidence together. The graph is rebuilt monthly, digital activity refreshed daily, and none of it touches ethnicity, religion or ideology, which we do not model.

Inside the human layer

Exhibit 1The active signal registry, drawn to scale by domain — roughly 17,000 signals, each line a family of observed behaviors. Ochre marks signals that entered a scored model this month. Grouping illustrative.
From the behavioral lexiconExhibit 2, composites, not individuals

A campaign speaks to millions. It persuades one at a time.

Every other vendor in politics starts from the voter file, because that is what there is to buy: age band, sex, party, precinct, vote history. It is enough to send mail. It is not enough to know what to say. We describe deciders as phenotypes — composite people assembled from thousands of behavioral neighbors — so that a strategist and a copywriter can hold an entire segment in mind as a single person, and so that the person receives a line that was written for her.

Exhibit 2The same voter, two ways. Left, everything the voter file knows about the Night Nurse. Right, what the human layer knows — signals color-coded by domain, six scores, and the track she was assigned. Composite; the file's fields are typical, the signals illustrative.
  • Behavior, not labels.

    Cohorts are built from what people do — sixty-two billion observed events — never from ethnicity, religion or party as a proxy for what they will do.

    The category default: age band, sex, party, precinct

  • Named, and written for.

    Each cohort is a person with a name, a narrative track and a register mix. Copy is written to her; the studio produces the variants; every one carries a disclosure.

    The category default: one message, three demographic cuts

  • Measured against a control.

    Every track is judged against a randomized holdout. A line that moves the Steward and suppresses the Pharmacist is caught in week two, not guessed at in November.

    The category default: a post-election poll

The Steward

n., first-ring suburb

Homeowner, twenty years at the same employer, runs the parish fish fry. Believes the deal has been broken by people who never had to keep one.

Reads as
Order, obligation, the fair deal
Moves on
Cost-of-living arithmetic told with respect, not alarm

"The people who wrote the last budget never had to keep one."

The Splitter

n., late-deciding

Has voted for both parties in the last four cycles and resents being told what she is. Decides in the final ten days, mostly on character.

Reads as
Independence
Moves on
The single credible detail, not the platform

"Two votes, two dates, on the record. Judge them yourself."

The Night Nurse

n., shift worker

Mid-career, watches the news on a phone between rounds, has no patience for anyone who has not done a hard job under pressure.

Reads as
Competence
Moves on
Proof that someone has carried weight and kept their head

"She ran a trauma floor for eleven years. You'll hear she has never run anything."

The Renter

n., downtown, under 35

Three employers on the résumé, a lease that resets every twelve months, and a commute that has quietly become the central fact of life.

Reads as
Momentum
Moves on
A candidate who names the rent and the commute in the first sentence

"Your lease resets in March. Your rent didn't ask permission."

The Pharmacist

n., exurban professional

Meticulous about sources, allergic to slogans, and will read the footnote if there is one. Trusts the messenger who shows the working.

Reads as
Skepticism
Moves on
The claim with its evidence attached

"Here is the ratio she wrote, the hospital that adopted it, and the audit that followed."

The Contractor

n., rural-exurban, self-employed

Runs a crew of four, bids every job against someone cheaper, and keeps his own books at the kitchen table on Sunday nights.

Reads as
Self-reliance
Moves on
The rule that cost him a week, named specifically

"Section 4 cost you a week in March. Here is who wrote it and who voted to repeal it."

Commerce Media Civic Household Health and work Bars show the signal domains that define each composite

The recordExhibits 3 to 5

Ninety-six in a hundred.

Across more than five hundred contests — presidential, gubernatorial, Senate and House, ballot measures, and over a hundred bond and levy elections — the programs we have designed have won ninety-six percent of the time, for candidates and causes across the spectrum. Client names are held under agreement. The methods and the margins are not.

Open the casebook

Exhibit 3Five hundred contests, one dot each. Ochre, won; bone, lost. Drawn from the firm's record across a decade; positions of the losses are schematic.
OfficeMethodNote
PresidentialHyper-localization of a national narrativeA 2016 national campaign; the message rewritten county by county for the places that decided it.
GubernatorialBehavioral targeting across three distinct strategiesThree competitive states, three different theories of the race, one measurement standard.
U.S. SenateThe neglect algorithmPersuadable voters both parties had stopped contacting, found and moved.
U.S. HouseGrassroots amplificationSmall-dollar and volunteer growth engineered from behavioral affinity, not lists.
Ballot measuresSimplifying complexityA 2022 California measure: 65 percent support at launch, 17.7 percent at the ballot.
Bonds and leviesConcrete, not abstractMore than a hundred measures; more than five billion dollars approved by voters raising their own taxes.
Committees and NGOsThe permanent campaignTrigger-based activation between cycles, so the audience is warm when it matters.
Exhibit 4The record, by office. Each method is a case in the casebook.
Exhibit 5Support for a 2022 California ballot measure. The launch figure is the campaign's baseline polling; the result is the official statewide vote of November 8, 2022 (17.7 percent yes). The intervening trajectory is drawn to scale between them. Program in field from the second month.
CasebookThree of nine

What the method did when it met a real race.

  • Simplifying complexity

    A California measure whose text ran to dozens of pages, at 65 percent support, defeated with 17.7 percent of the vote — one true sentence per voter.

  • The neglect algorithm

    The persuadable, likely voters both parties had stopped calling, found by cross-referencing contact history with receptivity.

  • Ten million, five countries

    A diaspora treated as the constituency it is, across the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, the UAE and Australia.

All nine cases

AbroadExhibit 6

The harder theaters.

The same discipline travels. Our people have run engagement, security and narrative programs for governments and institutions in the Gulf, South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Africa, and diaspora programs in five countries at once. Seven offices sit on a single desk, so a mandate in Riyadh and a race in Michigan are watched by someone who is awake.

Where we have worked

Diaspora as an electorate. A ten-million-person community spread across five countries is a constituency, whether or not anyone treats it as one. We do.

Featured readFrom the Brushworks Review
Also in the ReviewAll twenty-four papers
    The rules we work byFive things we will not do

    Five things we will not do.

    Written into every engagement letter, and the first page a donor's counsel or a ministry's compliance office is shown.

    I

    Target on identity

    We model behavior only. Ethnicity, religion and ideology are never modeled, never bought, and never accepted as a filter.

    So the Steward can be any color and any faith.

    II

    Hide the messenger

    Paid advocacy is labeled. We do not operate undisclosed personas or accounts, on any platform, in any language, for any client.

    So the second voice is a real one.

    III

    Report without a control

    Every program carries a randomized holdout sealed on day five, and every model beats a demographic and a look-alike baseline before it ships.

    So the number in the report is the number that happened.

    IV

    Cross a wall

    Independent-expenditure work is separated from candidate work by structure — teams, systems and seats. Foreign work is registered before it begins.

    So a donor's counsel can certify the posture, not take our word for it.

    V

    Run what we could not describe

    If a program could not be explained on the record, in public, in the client's name and ours, we do not run it. Mandates that fail the test are declined in writing.

    So there is nothing to find.

    Reports

    What the firm publishes, and how to read it.

    The methodology every program is measured by; the models we retired; what we register, disclose and decline; how the firm is secured; and what a prospective client receives under agreement. Written to be checked.

    Methodology notes

    Open as PDFA4 · opens in the browser · cite as Brushworks (2026), Methodology notes

    The standard of proof, written down. These notes govern every field report and proof report the firm issues; the Review's papers cite them.

    In short. Ten percent of every cohort is drawn at random before any spend, sealed, and reported to the client directly. Lift is the intention-to-treat difference between treated and control, on recorded acts where they exist, reported with a ninety-five percent interval, by register and cohort, weekly. A program that cannot produce this is not a Brushworks program.

    1. The holdout

    Within each cohort on the segment map, a simple random sample of ten percent of individuals (household-attributed records are sampled at the household) is assigned to the control on day five, before the first media plan is approved. The assignment list is hashed and delivered to the client; the firm's seats receive it as a suppression list. Cohorts smaller than two thousand are pooled for measurement with their nearest neighbor on the map, and the pooling is stated in the report. The control is never contacted by the program in any register; contact by the campaign's other vendors is recorded where the client can supply it and reported as contamination.

    2. Register-level holdouts

    Where the program's size allows, the treated population is further divided at random into arms that receive precision paid only; paid and organic; and all three registers in sequence. The differences between arms are the registers' marginal contributions; the interaction is reported separately. Where size does not allow, registers are measured against the single control and the limit is stated.

    3. Estimand and outcomes

    The estimand is the intention-to-treat effect: a voter assigned to treatment who was never reached counts as treated. Outcomes are recorded acts where they exist — validated turnout from the state's record, returned ballots, sign-ups, contributions, event attendance — and panel measurement of favorability and intent where an act does not exist, using the same instrument in both arms at the same times. Self-reported turnout is never used as an outcome.

    4. Intervals and power

    Holdout sizeMinimum detectable lift, base rate near halfDesign implication
    2,0004.4 pointsPool cohorts; measure registers together
    5,0002.8 pointsCohort-level lift; registers pooled
    10,0002.0 pointsCohort and register lift separately
    20,0001.4 pointsFrame-by-cohort tests in the second month
    40,000+1.0 point or betterDecay and backfire watched daily with confidence

    Intervals are ninety-five percent, two-sided, computed on the difference in means (or proportions) between arms; where assignment is at the household, standard errors are clustered at the household. Power is eighty percent against a treated group of similar size measured on the same instrument; the terrain brief states, before the program starts, which effects the design can see.

    5. Baselines and the publish gate

    A model is used only if, on the client's own sealed holdout, it discriminates the outcome better than two baselines: the voter file used as a competent consultant would use it (participation history, party, precinct, age band) and the delivery platforms' look-alike targeting seeded with the campaign's supporters. Discrimination is reported as area under the curve on a time-split validation; the gate is a pre-registered margin over the stronger baseline. Models are also tested for reconstructing an excluded attribute by proxy and retired if they do. Every shipped model carries a card and a field kill threshold.

    6. What is reported, and what is not

    Weekly: lift by cohort and register with intervals; reallocations; suppressions; models retired. At close: the proof report — design, lift, decay, backfire, the kill log, and the invoice-to-impression media trail. Never: raw outcomes among the treated presented as effects; the race's result presented as the program's; a cohort's negative lift omitted from the report.

    Methodology notes, version 1.0, September 2026. Reviewed annually by an independent reviewer; revisions posted here with a new version number.

    Kill-log summary

    Open as PDFA4 · opens in the browser · cite as Brushworks (2026), Kill-log summary

    Every model retired at the publish gate or in field, in aggregate, with the reasons. Program-level logs are delivered to each client and held under agreement.

    Launch edition. The firm publishes this summary each year. The table below is the format, populated with representative proportions from the firm's programs; the first audited annual count, for the year ending September 30, 2026, is published with the annual report in spring 2027. Counts here should be read as the shape of a year, not as audited totals.
    FamilyTestedFailed the fileFailed look-alikeProxy reconstructionShippedKilled in field
    Behavioral enrichment22831102
    Dispositions19521113
    Occupational1471061
    Interests1692140
    Affinities1361031
    All families843593347

    Reasons, defined

    • Failed the file. Did not beat a competently used voter file on the client's holdout for the outcome. The file is used instead, and the report says so.
    • Failed look-alike. Beat the file but not the platforms' own targeting seeded with supporters. Not used for that channel.
    • Proxy reconstruction. Discriminated an excluded attribute (ethnicity, religion, ideology) above the tolerance. Retired regardless of performance.
    • Killed in field. Shipped, then fell below its pre-set discrimination threshold on the daily watch; the cohort was rescored by the next model or the file.

    Kill-log summary, launch edition, September 2026. Next edition: with the annual report, spring 2027.

    Transparency report

    Open as PDFA4 · opens in the browser · cite as Brushworks (2026), Transparency report

    What the firm registered, disclosed, declined, received and resolved — in aggregate, twice a year.

    Launch edition. The first reporting period runs from the firm's public launch on September 18, 2026 to December 31, 2026, and is published in January 2027. This edition sets out what will be reported and how each figure is defined, so that the first numbers can be read against a fixed standard.
    ReportedDefinitionBasis
    RegistrationsFARA and LDA registrations filed and active; foreign-influence and third-party registrations abroad, by jurisdictionPublic registries
    DisclaimersPrograms on air; paid placements carrying disclaimers; placements visible in platform ad libraries; deficiencies found and correctedCompliance reviews; ad libraries
    Practice wallCertification issued for the period; any exception, with the counsel's findingWall certification
    Mandates declinedCount by category of the declination policy (opposing sides; not describable in public; sanctions; violence or civil-rights denial; voter suppression; foreign influence on a U.S. election; undisclosed messengers or synthetic people)Acceptance screen records
    ConcernsReceived, acknowledged within two business days, investigated, resolved, outstanding; anonymous shareconcerns@ log under counsel
    IncidentsSecurity, compliance or operational incidents; clients notified within seventy-two hours; regulators notifiedIncident log
    Rights requestsAccess, deletion, correction and opt-out requests received and answered within statutory time; Global Privacy Control signals honoredprivacy@ log
    Models retiredPointer to the kill-log summaryKill logs

    Transparency report, launch edition, September 2026. First period report: January 2027; semiannual thereafter.

    Security summary

    Open as PDFA4 · opens in the browser · cite as Brushworks (2026), Security summary

    The public overview of how program data is protected. The independent assessment, residency and replication attestations and restoration-test records are available under non-disclosure agreement.

    AreaStanding controlEvidence under NDA
    AccessNamed-user accounts, multi-factor authentication, least privilege scoped to a program, quarterly recertification, same-day revocationAccess matrix and recertification records
    Encryption and keysTLS 1.2+ in transit; AES-256 at rest; keys in a dedicated service with rotation and separation of dutiesConfiguration attestation
    SegregationSeparate environments per practice; client data isolated; delivery seats separated by practiceEnvironment diagram; wall certification
    MonitoringImmutable access and change logs retained one year, reviewed monthly; alerts on anomalous, bulk or export accessLog samples; review records
    Vulnerability managementContinuous dependency scanning; severity-based patch windows; annual independent penetration test with tracked remediationTest summary
    ContinuityEncrypted backups; quarterly restoration tests; recovery objectives per system; seven-office operational handoffRestoration records
    ResidencyIn-country holding for mandates that require it; replication attestations to the clientAttestations
    Incident responseWritten runbook; on-call across the desk; client notice within seventy-two hours; post-incident review within thirty daysRunbook summary; aggregate incident log

    Security summary, September 2026. Independent assessment: annual; summary available under NDA to clients and prospective clients.

    Annual report, Vol. I

    Open as PDFA4 · opens in the browser · cite as Brushworks (2026), Annual report, Vol. I

    Spring 2027, in preparation. The record for the cycle, published in one document.

    The annual report will carry: the contests of the cycle by office and state, with the programs' aggregate lift against holdouts and the losses with their post-mortems; the kill-log summary with audited counts; the transparency figures for both periods; the governance ledger with the independent-review summaries; the Review's papers of the year in a single volume; and the policies as revised. It is published on this page and delivered to every client of the cycle.

    SectionContentsBasis
    The recordContests by office and state; aggregate lift vs holdouts; the lossesProof reports
    ModelsAudited kill-log summary; the catalog by familyKill logs
    TransparencyBoth semiannual periods, combinedTransparency reports
    GovernanceWall certification; independent-review summaries; concerns and outcomesIndependent reviewers; counsel
    The ReviewThe year's papers, boundResearch desk

    Diligence pack

    Open as PDFA4 · opens in the browser · cite as Brushworks (2026), Diligence pack

    For prospective clients, committee treasurers, donors' counsel and ministries, under non-disclosure agreement.

    DocumentWhat it shows
    Wall certificationThe candidate and independent-expenditure practices' separation, certified by counsel for the current cycle
    Sample proof report (redacted)A full program report: design, lift by cohort and register with intervals, decay, backfire, kill log, media trail
    Sample kill log and model cardThe gate in practice: baselines, results, reasons; what a shipped model documents
    Processor listEvery processor by category, with the terms that bind it
    Sample provenance recordWhat is recorded about a data source before it is used
    Independent-review summariesSecurity controls; the practice wall; the measurement methodology
    Carrier's certificateThe underwriting behind the performance assurance, for qualifying political programs
    Compliance review templateThe day-ten checklist, unfilled

    Request the pack through the contact page (choose "a government or institution" or "a campaign"), and say which documents you need first. The NDA is the firm's mutual form; counsel's redlines are welcome.

    Brief us.

    Tell us the race, the calendar and the margin. Within a week we will tell you whether we can move it and what it would take. Candidate work and independent-expenditure work are taken by separate teams; say which you are. Governments and institutions: tell us the mandate and the jurisdiction, and we will tell you what registration it requires before we say anything else.

    Send a brief

    brief@brwrks.com
    Candidate practice
    Independent-expenditure practice
    International practice
    Brushworks, Inc. — a Wyoming corporation
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