Brushworks
Brief us

Political strategy and data, at human resolution

Elections are decided by people, not demographics. We work at that scale.

Brushworks is a political intelligence firm. We model how individual voters behave, determine what would move each of them, and put persuasion into the field with a standard of proof — across the United States and in the harder theaters abroad.

  1. 1. The file
  2. 2. Signals resolve
  3. 3. Deciders surface
  4. 4. A program in field
Plate IFour thousand people as the voter file sees them: identical rows, nothing to tell one from another.
500+contests, from presidential to school board, over a decade
96%won, across every level and both parties
$5B+approved in more than a hundred bond and levy measures
270M+American adults and households, resolved and behaviorally scored
12countries of institutional and diaspora work
7offices on a single 24-hour desk
The premise

Most campaigns still buy the electorate the way television networks sold it in 1985: by age, sex, county and party file. Those labels are easy to purchase and easy to defend in a budget meeting. They are also the reason two neighbors with identical demographics receive identical mail and vote in opposite directions.

People do not decide as categories. They decide as individuals, under pressure, with whatever they happened to pay attention to that month. That attention leaves traces — what someone reads, buys, searches, cancels, renews, drives past on the way to work. Read carefully and modeled properly, those traces describe a person far better than the file does: what they are anxious about, what they take pride in, whom they trust, and what they have quietly stopped believing.

Brushworks was built to work at that resolution. We do the research, the modeling, the message architecture and the delivery ourselves, through our own media seats, and we measure every program against a held-out control — so that what we report at the end is what actually happened.

What we doThe method, in five movements

Terrain, audience, message, delivery, proof.

The order matters. Nothing is built before the race is mapped; nothing is written before the deciders are named; nothing is reported that was not measured against a control.

Capabilities in full

  1. I

    Terrain

    Where the race will actually be decided: the precincts, the margin, the money coming against you, and the clock.

  2. II

    Audience

    Deciders identified by what they do rather than by label, and grouped by what would move them.

  3. III

    Message

    A narrative track for each group, built from the anxieties and hopes it already holds and sequenced for the persuasion arc.

  4. IV

    Delivery

    Three registers: precision paid media, organic advocacy, and the ambient campaign. All of it disclosed, all of it through our own seats.

  5. V

    Proof

    Randomized holdouts, daily measurement, and a publish gate no model passes without beating the baseline.

The human layerExhibit 1

One person, seventeen thousand signals.

Our view of the American electorate is assembled from roughly sixty-two billion observed behaviors, resolved to more than 270 million adults and their households, organized into a ten-thousand-topic dictionary, and scored by models trained on real outcomes rather than proxies.

No single signal is decisive. The pattern is. A subscription cancelled, a commute lengthened, a local news habit, a sudden interest in prescription prices — each is noise on its own and evidence together. The graph is rebuilt monthly, digital activity refreshed daily, and none of it touches ethnicity, religion or ideology, which we do not model.

Inside the human layer

Exhibit 1The active signal registry, drawn to scale by domain — roughly 17,000 signals, each line a family of observed behaviors. Ochre marks signals that entered a scored model this month. Grouping illustrative.
From the behavioral lexiconExhibit 2, composites, not individuals

A campaign speaks to millions. It persuades one at a time.

Every other vendor in politics starts from the voter file, because that is what there is to buy: age band, sex, party, precinct, vote history. It is enough to send mail. It is not enough to know what to say. We describe deciders as phenotypes — composite people assembled from thousands of behavioral neighbors — so that a strategist and a copywriter can hold an entire segment in mind as a single person, and so that the person receives a line that was written for her.

Exhibit 2The same voter, two ways. Left, everything the voter file knows about the Night Nurse. Right, what the human layer knows — signals color-coded by domain, six scores, and the track she was assigned. Composite; the file's fields are typical, the signals illustrative.
  • Behavior, not labels.

    Cohorts are built from what people do — sixty-two billion observed events — never from ethnicity, religion or party as a proxy for what they will do.

    The category default: age band, sex, party, precinct

  • Named, and written for.

    Each cohort is a person with a name, a narrative track and a register mix. Copy is written to her; the studio produces the variants; every one carries a disclosure.

    The category default: one message, three demographic cuts

  • Measured against a control.

    Every track is judged against a randomized holdout. A line that moves the Steward and suppresses the Pharmacist is caught in week two, not guessed at in November.

    The category default: a post-election poll

The Steward

n., first-ring suburb

Homeowner, twenty years at the same employer, runs the parish fish fry. Believes the deal has been broken by people who never had to keep one.

Reads as
Order, obligation, the fair deal
Moves on
Cost-of-living arithmetic told with respect, not alarm

"The people who wrote the last budget never had to keep one."

The Splitter

n., late-deciding

Has voted for both parties in the last four cycles and resents being told what she is. Decides in the final ten days, mostly on character.

Reads as
Independence
Moves on
The single credible detail, not the platform

"Two votes, two dates, on the record. Judge them yourself."

The Night Nurse

n., shift worker

Mid-career, watches the news on a phone between rounds, has no patience for anyone who has not done a hard job under pressure.

Reads as
Competence
Moves on
Proof that someone has carried weight and kept their head

"She ran a trauma floor for eleven years. You'll hear she has never run anything."

The Renter

n., downtown, under 35

Three employers on the résumé, a lease that resets every twelve months, and a commute that has quietly become the central fact of life.

Reads as
Momentum
Moves on
A candidate who names the rent and the commute in the first sentence

"Your lease resets in March. Your rent didn't ask permission."

The Pharmacist

n., exurban professional

Meticulous about sources, allergic to slogans, and will read the footnote if there is one. Trusts the messenger who shows the working.

Reads as
Skepticism
Moves on
The claim with its evidence attached

"Here is the ratio she wrote, the hospital that adopted it, and the audit that followed."

The Contractor

n., rural-exurban, self-employed

Runs a crew of four, bids every job against someone cheaper, and keeps his own books at the kitchen table on Sunday nights.

Reads as
Self-reliance
Moves on
The rule that cost him a week, named specifically

"Section 4 cost you a week in March. Here is who wrote it and who voted to repeal it."

Commerce Media Civic Household Health and work Bars show the signal domains that define each composite

The recordExhibits 3 to 5

Ninety-six in a hundred.

Across more than five hundred contests — presidential, gubernatorial, Senate and House, ballot measures, and over a hundred bond and levy elections — the programs we have designed have won ninety-six percent of the time, for candidates and causes across the spectrum. Client names are held under agreement. The methods and the margins are not.

Open the casebook

Exhibit 3Five hundred contests, one dot each. Ochre, won; bone, lost. Drawn from the firm's record across a decade; positions of the losses are schematic.
OfficeMethodNote
PresidentialHyper-localization of a national narrativeA 2016 national campaign; the message rewritten county by county for the places that decided it.
GubernatorialBehavioral targeting across three distinct strategiesThree competitive states, three different theories of the race, one measurement standard.
U.S. SenateThe neglect algorithmPersuadable voters both parties had stopped contacting, found and moved.
U.S. HouseGrassroots amplificationSmall-dollar and volunteer growth engineered from behavioral affinity, not lists.
Ballot measuresSimplifying complexityA 2022 California measure: 65 percent support at launch, 17.7 percent at the ballot.
Bonds and leviesConcrete, not abstractMore than a hundred measures; more than five billion dollars approved by voters raising their own taxes.
Committees and NGOsThe permanent campaignTrigger-based activation between cycles, so the audience is warm when it matters.
Exhibit 4The record, by office. Each method is a case in the casebook.
Exhibit 5Support for a 2022 California ballot measure. The launch figure is the campaign's baseline polling; the result is the official statewide vote of November 8, 2022 (17.7 percent yes). The intervening trajectory is drawn to scale between them. Program in field from the second month.
CasebookThree of nine

What the method did when it met a real race.

  • Simplifying complexity

    A California measure whose text ran to dozens of pages, at 65 percent support, defeated with 17.7 percent of the vote — one true sentence per voter.

  • The neglect algorithm

    The persuadable, likely voters both parties had stopped calling, found by cross-referencing contact history with receptivity.

  • Ten million, five countries

    A diaspora treated as the constituency it is, across the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, the UAE and Australia.

All nine cases

AbroadExhibit 6

The harder theaters.

The same discipline travels. Our people have run engagement, security and narrative programs for governments and institutions in the Gulf, South Asia, Southeast Asia and West Africa, and diaspora programs in five countries at once. Seven offices sit on a single desk, so a mandate in Riyadh and a race in Michigan are watched by someone who is awake.

Where we have worked

Diaspora as an electorate. A ten-million-person community spread across five countries is a constituency, whether or not anyone treats it as one. We do.

Featured readFrom the Brushworks Review
Also in the ReviewAll twenty-four papers
    The rules we work byFive things we will not do

    Five things we will not do.

    Written into every engagement letter, and the first page a donor's counsel or a ministry's compliance office is shown.

    I

    Target on identity

    We model behavior only. Ethnicity, religion and ideology are never modeled, never bought, and never accepted as a filter.

    So the Steward can be any color and any faith.

    II

    Hide the messenger

    Paid advocacy is labeled. We do not operate undisclosed personas or accounts, on any platform, in any language, for any client.

    So the second voice is a real one.

    III

    Report without a control

    Every program carries a randomized holdout sealed on day five, and every model beats a demographic and a look-alike baseline before it ships.

    So the number in the report is the number that happened.

    IV

    Cross a wall

    Independent-expenditure work is separated from candidate work by structure — teams, systems and seats. Foreign work is registered before it begins.

    So a donor's counsel can certify the posture, not take our word for it.

    V

    Run what we could not describe

    If a program could not be explained on the record, in public, in the client's name and ours, we do not run it. Mandates that fail the test are declined in writing.

    So there is nothing to find.

    Who we work with

    Campaigns, governments, candidates and the people who fund them.

    Brushworks is a political intelligence firm: behavioral research, strategy, creative and delivery for campaigns, committees, governments and institutions, measured against a sealed control. This page says what each kind of client receives, what it costs them to start, and what to ask us before they do.

    For campaign managers

    A statewide, congressional, legislative, municipal or ballot-measure program with a standard of proof — run inside your campaign's plan, not around it.

    You receiveWhenWhat it is
    Terrain briefDay 1The margin arithmetic, the calendar and your state's own return curve, the opposition file, and the county board with its second column — the modeled pool of persuadable, likely voters neither side is reaching
    Segment mapDay 3Deciders scored, sized and named as composites — the Steward, the Night Nurse, the Renter — with the hold list of people the program should never contact
    The holdoutDay 5Ten percent of every cohort sealed and reported to you directly, so every claim of lift is checked against people we left alone
    Masters and variantsDay 7 onwardOne approved master per narrative track, built from your existing content and brand; forty to sixty disclosed variants for a statewide race
    Weekly field reportFrom day 14Lift by cohort and register with intervals; what was reflighted, suppressed and retrained; the media trail from invoice to impression
    Proof report and kill logCloseWhat the program did, not what the race did — including the cohorts that moved the wrong way and the models we retired

    Where it fits: alongside your pollster (we measure acts, they measure opinion), your media buyer (we place through our own seats and hand you the trail) and your field program (we tell you whom not to knock). Start with the method in five movements, the first fourteen days, and the neglect algorithm. Then brief the firm.

    For governments and institutions

    Institutional communication, public-behavior programs and diaspora engagement outside an election — registered before work begins, labeled on every placement, measured against a control.

    MandateWhat the firm doesExample in the record
    Public communication at scaleCohorts by behavior rather than by census category; messages in the registers each public trusts; a sealed control so the ministry knows what movedNarrative and regulatory programs across the Gulf and Southeast Asia
    Diaspora engagementA ten-million-person community across five host markets segmented by behavior, reached through the leaders it already trusts, with a crisis desk that answers in hoursThe five-market program in the casebook
    Security and safety behaviorDensity, flow and access frameworks against a site's own baseline, identity absent by designA gathering of some two million people a year
    Crisis architectureA rehearsed clock, pre-approved masters, register-level response within two hours, measuredThe seven-office desk, fourteen hours of the clock

    How it is governed: an acceptance screen for client, funds, purpose, jurisdiction and sanctions; registration under the laws that govern foreign representation before any activity touches a market; local partners of record; in-country data holding where the mandate requires it; certified destruction at close. Read Persuasion in the open, the work abroad, and the compliance packs for the jurisdictions you touch. Mandates that cannot be described in public are declined in writing.

    For candidates

    One conviction you can hold your team to: elections are decided by people, not demographics, and a program that says it moved voters should be able to prove it.

    What you will be asked to decideWhy it is yours
    The mastersEvery variant descends from a master you signed. Nothing goes out in your voice that you did not read
    The rulesBehavior only, so no cohort is a demographic label; disclosed messengers, so no one speaks for you who cannot say who asked; a sealed control, so the number in the report is the number that happened
    The hold listThe people whose behavior says they decided long ago and who move the wrong way when contacted. The most valuable decision a program makes is whom to leave alone
    The recordOur losses are published in the casebook with their post-mortems. Yours would be too

    What it takes from you: the file on day one, an approver for masters, your existing content and brand guidelines, counsel's contact. What it gives back: a weekly report that says what moved, a program that can be described in public, and a standard your opponent's vendor cannot meet. Read A standard of proof and Backfire, and the five things we will not do.

    For donors, committees and their counsel

    Independent-expenditure and issue programs behind a documented wall, with the diligence pack a treasurer or counsel needs to sign off.

    What counsel receivesWhat it shows
    Wall certificationThe candidate and independent-expenditure practices are separate teams, systems and seats; no person crosses during a cycle; certified by counsel
    Compliance review, day tenDisclaimers, coordination protocols, registrations, sanctions screening and platform verification, signed before anything goes on air
    Media trailEvery placement from one account of record: invoice to placement to impression to holdout comparison
    Proof reportLift against a sealed control with intervals — the return on the contribution, stated so that it can be checked
    Performance assuranceUnderwritten by a third-party carrier for qualifying political programs placed through the firm's seats; described only in the engagement letter, never as a guarantee of an outcome

    What a donor should ask any vendor: show me the control; show me the models you killed; show me the wall. The answers are on this site — the reports, the disclosures and the diligence pack. Then write to the firm and say who your counsel is.

    Questions we are asked

    What is a political intelligence firm?
    A firm that models how individual voters or publics behave, determines what would move each of them, and puts persuasion into the field with a measurement design that can fail — a sealed control group in every program. Brushworks combines behavioral research, strategy, a creative studio and single-origin media delivery under one standard of proof.
    How does Brushworks measure whether a campaign program worked?
    Ten percent of every cohort is drawn at random before any spend, sealed, and never contacted. Lift is the difference between the treated and the control on recorded acts or panel measures, reported with intervals, by cohort and register, weekly and at close. Raw outcomes among the treated are never presented as effects.
    Does Brushworks target voters by race, religion or ideology?
    No. The firm models behavior — recorded acts with a time — and excludes ethnicity, religion and ideology from its data and models by construction. Every model is tested for reconstructing an excluded attribute by proxy and retired if it does.
    What does a campaign need to provide to start?
    The voter file or supporter file under a data-use agreement on day one, a named approver for creative masters, the campaign's existing content and brand guidelines, and counsel's contact. The terrain brief is delivered within seventy-two hours; the program is on air on day fourteen.
    Can Brushworks work for a government or institution outside the United States?
    Yes, through its international practice: registered before work begins under the laws that govern foreign representation and lobbying where they apply, with a local partner of record in each market, labeling in the market's language, reporting on the regime's cadence, and certified destruction at close. Mandates aimed at influencing a United States election are declined.
    Does the firm work for both parties?
    Yes. Clients of both parties are accepted, never on opposing sides of the same contest, and the same rules apply to every program: behavior only, disclosed messengers, a sealed control, a documented wall, and nothing the firm could not describe in public.
    What does an engagement cost?
    Programs are priced by scope in the engagement letter after a terrain brief. Within a week of a brief, the firm says whether it can move the race or the mandate and what it would take. Media is placed through the firm's own seats at cost with a disclosed fee, and the invoice-to-impression trail is delivered with every report.
    How can a donor or a committee's counsel verify the firm's claims?
    Through the verification ledger on the policies page, which says where each claim can be checked; the reports page, which publishes the methodology, the kill-log summary and the transparency report; and the diligence pack, available under non-disclosure agreement, which includes the wall certification and a redacted proof report.

    Brief us.

    Tell us the race, the calendar and the margin. Within a week we will tell you whether we can move it and what it would take. Candidate work and independent-expenditure work are taken by separate teams; say which you are. Governments and institutions: tell us the mandate and the jurisdiction, and we will tell you what registration it requires before we say anything else.

    Send a brief

    brief@brwrks.com
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